I’ve always taken a dim view (translation: not worth reading) of books that confidently proclaimed an absolute. From Kevin Phillips’ 1969 “The Emerging Republican Majority,” to John Judis’ 2002 “The Emerging Democrat Majority,” they cleverly manipulated statistics and assumed trends not in evidence.
Judas, after this past November’s election, has now all but recanted his thesis, saying that the Democrats’ continuing, and increasing, loss of support among middle class voters all but dooms them.
Just goes to show you what 8 years of Obama will do….
It’s not my intent to conduct an advance post-mortem of the Democrat party based on broad social, demographic, or economic parameters; rather, I want to peek some 20 months into the future, ask a “what if, ” and see what it just might all mean.
Let’s make two reasonable assumption: Hillary loses the presidential race, and the Democrats fail to regain the Senate.
What then is the state of the Democrat party on November 9, 2016?
First, will Pelosi and Reid hang on to power? They can’t, or won’t, and the congressional Dems will be bloodied by the battles for leadership.
The Democrat bench is not just weak, it is virtually nonexistent.
Will we immediately see “Ready for Liz” committees spring up? She’ll be 73 in 2020.
Cuomo’s toast….the growing scandals in Albany will make him toxic.
O’Malley got backhanded by the voters of Maryland..when they elected a Republican to clean up his messes.
Hey, Jerry Brown will be 82 when he’d be sworn in. Bernie Sanders would be a comparative youngster in 2020, at age 79.
There’s absolutely no one..not one senator, representative, or governor (and after 2016, the GOP will hold about 65% of the state houses) that anyone can remotely envision as a national candidate.
OK, OK….let’s deal with the two obvious examples that everyone will cite to refute my thesis: Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Both came out nowhere to capture the national stage, and win the White House.
So why can’t the Democrats pull the rabbit out of the hat yet again? Many think that one of the Castros (Julian and Joaquin, or is it Fidel and Raoul?) are being groomed for 2020.
Two things strongly indicate this won’t happen again:
1. Going into 2020, it will be more than a decade since the Democrats had no control over any part of the federal government. Most elected Democrats will have no institutional memory of ever being in power. Before you can hope to regain power, you need a new vision, and for the sclerotic Democrat party..top heavy with “old bulls,” hostage to/obeisance to seniority, and weighed down by a quarter of the caucus elected from “majority-minority” districts and concerned only with their own election and self-aggrandizement…..well you can’t turn around a ship that size in one…not two, not even three electoral cycles. That’s how/why the GOP had to endure FOURTEEN YEARS of Bob Michel as Minority Leader.
2. But here’s why it really going to be different this time. The Democrat Party has been drifting to the left for decades. After the losses in 2016, the hard left of the Democrats will be in full cry: “You stuck us with Hillary. We wanted Warren.”
And because the big money in Democrat circles flows from the very liberal rich supporters, they’ll be able to call all the shots. Because Democrat voters are concentrated in a few small areas, to win a Democrat nomination, which all but guarantees an electoral win, you have to be as far to the left as possible. That’s how de Blasio was elected mayor of NYC.
You will see the far left groups move to capture control of the mechanisms of the Democrat party at the local and state levels. There will be no opposition.
The other big Democrat source of money and manpower: the unions, both public and private, will continue to lose members, power, and influence. This will hurt.
In 2016, we have a very good chance to stick a fork in the Democrat party,and consign them to near irrelevancy for at least a decade.
Then we conservatives can turn to the next opponent: the GOP establishment.