Diary

Whither the Democrat party post 2016?

I know, I know….we haven’t even had the 2014 elections yet.

People succeed because often they have the ability to think ahead, into the future, to see just over the crest of the hill, or around the corner. The same hold true with politics.

Barack Obama was elected in 2008 promising to “fundamentally transform America.” It’s possible he may instead end up “fundamentally transforming the Democrat party,” and not for the better from their perspective.

Let’s look at a possible,  plausible scenario  post Election Day 2016.

1. A Republican has won the White House. Either Hillary lost the election, or declined to run, or she was once again beaten in the primaries.  Take your pick. The point is, after another two years of Obama’s policies.., with maybe a good chunk the world blowing up along the way, it will be hard for any Democrat to win the presidency.

2. GOP continues to hold the House. Their majority has increased, and the Republican conference grows even more conservative.

3. The GOP retains control of the Senate  that they narrowly won in 2014.  Despite the conventional wisdom that the Dems has a good chance of retaking the Senate, Obama’s unpopularity proved too big a handicap for Democrats to overcome.

OK…you can carp about any or all of these assumptions…yet the probability of this coming to pass is likely between 40-60%.

So, if this is what happens, what does it say about the future of the Democrat party?

Simply put, it will be a cataclysmic shake up. The entire old guard..the old bulls, will be swept away. And the party will be far more hard left, appealing to a die-hard radical base.

1. The Clinton era will finally be over.

2. Pelosi and Reid will be gone.

3. You will see massive retirements  among senior democrats in Congress.

4. The Democrat leadership struggles in Congress will be brutal, with the winners emerging from the most liberal wings of the party.

5. There will be no national leaders of any stature. Rather, we’ll a host of pretenders. The 2020 Democrat presidential nomination will be wide open..and the pretenders will spend the next 4 years running hard to the left to establish their credentials and position themselves for the primaries.

The Democrat party may well find itself in a shambles after the 2016 election. Whoever got the nomination in 2016 succeeded in part because they ran away from Obama and Obamacare,

Ask yourself, how much face time will Obama get at the 2016 Democrat convention? How much time will they spend extolling the virtues of Obamacare?

Republicans have the potential to build a governing majority, and hopefully a conservative one..for the next 10 years?

Will they?