The polls are all over the place. Both in Iowa, and nationally, but we can state some obvious facts.
Mitt still can’t crack that low 20’s% ceiling.
Ron Paul will NOT be the nominee, but he will be in this until the convention. His supporters are fanatical, and his campaign is well financed. I suspect that Iowa will be his high water mark, as more and more, people realize the insanity of his foreign policy pronouncements.
Newt seems to be coming back to earth, and rapidly. It could be that he has been examined by the base, and found lacking.
So we’re left with the the three candidates who seem to speak to, and for the evangelical core of the GOP, Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum. That’s two too many. ( And I suspect that the 10-15% of voters who remain undecided are Cain supporters still in mourning. They are alos evangelicals for the most part.) And realistically, Perry is the only one who has the financial backing to go the distance.
But these three are cannibalizing each other now, and all they are doing is to likely give Mitt the nomination.
Indeed, we’ve already had several calls for one or more of them to drop out. That’s not likely to happen, it’s far more likely that all three will continue until the $$$ dries up. But that can last through the South Carolina primary. And that may be too late.
However, there is ONE individual in the GOP who has the stature, the presence, and the voice to immediately change the dynamics of this campaign in a second. And that person is Sarah Palin.
It is long past time for her to announce her preference. I assume it would be Perry. But if she now picks one of the three, publicly comes out for that person, starts to fund raise and campaign with that person..that changes everything.
The other two will soon be forced to drop out for lack of funds, and because supporters are defecting. And soon it will be either a two person contest ( Mitt v. Palin’s choice) or possibly a three person race ( if Newt can stabilize his campaign)
Regardless, it will stop Mitt from getting the nomination by default.
Palin owes it to the country, ( and also yes, to the GOP), to endorse now, and end the intramural conflict among evangelicals.
There is no reason for her to delay, unless, of course, she secretly harbors hope for a brokered convention.
Gov. Palin…time to step up.