Diary

Rubio is The Favorite In 13 Western States + Others

There’s been a lot of trash talking about “where does Rubio win,” after three states have voted, none of which were favorable to Rubio.

Marco Rubio is currently the favorite to win in the following states:

Every state west of the Mississippi river, except Nevada (too close off the Trump momentum in SC), Oklahoma, and Texas.  He has a decent shot at taking Nevada and Oklahoma but is the underdog there.  The rest of the 13 states west of the Mississippi river (including Minnesota) Rubio will be the favorite.  (Remember, most of these states will vote AFTER John Kasich will drop out, probably on March 5, and Trump’s strength nationally is in the South, Appalachia, and Northeast.  Cruz’s is in the South and the Bible belt.  The West is the weakness of Rubio’s two biggest competitors)  There is no valid polling from these states at the moment because so many candidates have dropped out so don’t throw November/December.

Rubio should still be the favorite in Florida.  (Don’t throw old polls from December at me.)  The National numbers, post-SC, will be around DT32, MR26, TC20, JK11, BC 6.  Rubio will outperform his national numbers in Florida by 10-20 points, giving him the win there.

Rubio will also probably win Alaska, Hawaii, Tennessee, Guam, D.C., Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Virginia, American Samoa, Marianas, and Wisconsin.