Diary

Post-Debate SC Polls: Rubio, Kasich Up; Trump, Cruz Down

Breaking down 5 pre-debate and 4 post-debate polls, proportionally allocating the totals to equal 100%, the pre-debate polls showed:

Trump 39.1

Cruz 19.2

Rubio 16.1

Bush 10.4

Kasich 10.1

Carson 5.1

The post-debate polls show:

Trump 36.6 (-2.5)

Cruz 17.9 (-1.3)

Rubio 17.6 (+1.5)

Bush 10.5 (+0.1)

Kasich 11.0 (+0.9)

Carson 6.4 (+1.3)

So Trump has lost some support since the debate but at this rate it would not be enough to put him in danger of losing the state.  Cruz has lost 1.3 points and Rubio has gained 1.5, putting the two in a virtual tie for second (17.9 vs. 17.6), with momentum on the side of the Florida Senator.  Bush has been flat which has enabled Kasich (+0.9) to pass him for fourth place, 11.0 to 10.5.  Carson, an also ran at this point, has gained 1.3 points, to 6.4.

If Bush does indeed finish behind Kasich and behind Cruz/Rubio by 7-plus points I do not see how his campaign justifies continuing on.  Conversely if Kasich finishes above Bush without having campaigned hard in the state he may take it as a symbolic victory of sorts, and may continue his quixotic campaign in case Trump, Rubio, and Cruz’s planes all collide midair.