Will Iowa Throw the Nomination to the Establishment Again?

In 2012 the results of the Iowa caucus were:
Santorum 24.6 <— ridiculously unelectable candidate
Romney 24.6 <— moderate Mitt
Paul 21.5 <– old crazy guy
Gingrich 13.3 <— unelectable establishment candidate
Perry 10.4 <— Electable establishment-alternative
In 2008 the results were:
Huckabee 34.4 <— “Christian Democrat”
Romney 25.2 <— moderate Mitt
Thompson 13.4 <— Electable establishment-alternative
McCain 13.0 <—old crazy guy who was also establishment favorite
Paul 9.9 <—old crazy guy who the establishment hated
In 2012 the only real electable conservative alternative to Romney was Perry (I’m sorry Newt supporters, but he was not electable, and was not really anti-establishment).  Iowa killed Perry’s campaign.  In 2008 Iowa voted for the cultural-conservative non-conservative Huckabee followed by Moderate Mitt, with the conservative Thompson a far off third with 13.4%, effectively killing his candidacy and killing the chance for a conservative nominee as the establishment-backed McCain faced off against Moderate Mitt and “Christian Democrat” Huckabee.
Why did Iowa not like Thompson? Because he wore expensive shoes and had a young hot wife? I know Perry bombed in the debates but he was an accomplished governor and Rick Santorum should have been barred from running due to his awful performace in the 2006 Pennsylvania senate election, in which he suffered a resounding 59-41 loss in a slightly blue state.  Everyone knows that you don’t get called up to the big leagues when you bat .150 in the minors with a ton of errors.  Santorum should have maybe run for congress after a performance like that, not President! .
Will Iowa shoot down conservatives hopes again in 2016? I hope not: I believe Scott Walker can win the caucuses.  Maybe Santorum and Huck can split the “I don’t like Fred Thompson’s shoes” vote and an actual electable conservative can win this year.  If they give us another Santorum or Huck I propose we move this caucus till the end of the calendar.