Diary

The "Newt and Santorum Delegate Myth"

I have heard over and over from RP supporters that Newt and Santorum can not win the nomination because they did not get on the ballot in a couple states. So lets do the Math. (I took the Math for Marines MCI, so I go this!)

 

Newt is not on the Ballot in VA and MO… a total of 101 delegates… so he still has the possibility of winning 2128 on top of his 25 he already has… So a grand total of 2153 Only needs 1144 to win… that is 1009 delegate difference….

 

So it’s a fact that not being on the VA and MO alone will not stop him from gaining the delegates he need.Now the argument is he Gingrich only has partial slates of delegates in IL, OH, and TN, which together represent 193 delegates. So lets just run with it. so 101+193=294… ok stick with me… 2128-294=1834…. Still around 700 more then he need (this assumes he wins everything which is not likely)

 

Ok but keeping all this in mind… the fact is he doesn’t need all 1144 delegates as long as no one else get that many. He only needs to secure enough that Romney does not get 1144.If no candidate wins that amount there will be a brokered convention where the candidates start trying to get delegates from another candidate to switch over.

 

The earliest any candidate can achieve 1144 delegates is the end of April, and that is if they win every delegate in every primary/caucus.  That is not going to happen.So all this talk about how Newt and Santorum “mathematically” cannot when is BS. Now you can do your own math and might come up with something different. but here it is “Barney style”