The United States has a very long history of voting for change. In fact, every eight years, on average, we vote to change the party in power in Congress and the presidency. Oddly enough, we do not do this for the Supreme Court and so it often is an afterthought.
The most common platform for the opposing party is to provide a positive message while painting the opposing party in a negative light. When a President has only served a single term, the election is most often a referral on their good governance. Defeat only comes if a majority of the public is dissatisfied. This is fairly rare. Over the course of the past 80 years, we have only had two full-term elected Presidents get defeated for reelection, Carter and Bush I.
Over the course of those same 80 years, we have, subsequent to the 22nd Amendment, not ever had one party hold more than three consecutive terms. We have, in fact, not had two different Democrats stitch together a tag-team election since Truman, and that was an exceptional case. The odds are simply against it.
In terms of happiness, the Democrats are arguing that Obamacare, EPA strangulation of energy, and Same-sex Marriage are their singular accomplishments. At most, a tiny fraction of the nation is impacted by any of these. In other words, history and statistics are favoring a Republican for President.
The biggest question is how it is that Trump was able to come in and wrest away the GOP and completely obliterate 80 years’ worth of statistics in one month? This should have been a Bush coronation. This should have been a conventional process where Trump joined the ranks of Forbes, Cain, and others with little to no political experience. However, instead it is very likely that come tomorrow night, the lights will go out on all other political opposition to his nomination.
There is a sense of seething anger within both parties. We are susceptible to authoritarian tendencies. People are angry because they are struggling economically and they are looking for the responsible Party, pun intended. The odds are highest that they will aim at the Democrats because Obama has been in charge for eight years and can no longer get away with pointing at anyone else.
The Trump coalition consists of a few groups: people who believe the GOP cannot win with a conventional candidate, people who are upset with their economic situation, people who want someone who talks tough and will BE tough, someone who could be a guest on Jerry Springer without anyone batting an eye. There are many racists that feel at home due to their nativist sentiment, but there are also many non-racists who are seeking a nativist candidate. I have relatives who want Trump simply because they are angry and believe he is the only person who will not react as a politician would to a mortal threat.
There is a mob mentality and dry kindling is all over the place. People are tired of PC police and the controversies that they have to endure simply about using a bathroom marked “Women”. We are being asked to accept that all kinds of special interests, be it wealthy, homosexual, black, feminist, whatever, be able to take your money and use it as they wish. This includes Planned Parenthood. There are very able writers commenting that Trump talks one way, but what can we trust in terms of what he does?
They are very cogent in their arguments. It is true: Trump as a leader is simply an unknown quantity. I don’t think that anyone, including the Clintons, knows what he would actually do. He is the very definition of loose cannon. And so he has appealed to the angry mob and they are taking with them quite a few otherwise reasonable politicians as his juggernaut gathers steam.
Akin to 1933, the writing is on the wall. There are those who refused to support Hitler. I am not comparing Trump to Hitler, rather the national sentiment. Economic factors for the vast majority of us are horrible and we cannot fathom why our government wants to spend over four trillion dollars that we simply do not have. We want someone who will restore our country, and Trump knows what we want and repeats it back to some of us.
Many of Trump’s supporters quietly admit they have no idea what will happen once he is actually in charge. They just don’t want anyone else because no one else seems willing to do anything. Most of all, they don’t want Hillary nor Bernie. For better or worse, tomorrow night is most likely going to confirm that the Trump coalition has taken over our party and will remake it into something it wasn’t, but now is.