Diary

2016 – An Outsider’s Handicapping – Final Part V

Mitt Romney, John Kasich or Chris Christie were the most likely nominees per my analysis I first started in November of 2014.  It has been over 14 months and tomorrow begins the voting, so I thought I would come back and revisit this one last time.  Let’s see what happens!

I had the final six being Romney, Kasich, Christie, Perry, Walker and Bush.  We lost Perry and Walker awhile ago.  Romney never started running.  That leaves Kasich, Christie and Bush.

As of today, the final day before the Iowa Caucus, Bush is in 5th nationally, Kasich in 8th and Christie is in 6th, with a combined average of 10.2% among themselves. The odds are very low that any of them will win the nomination.

Right now, the betting markets at PredictIt have Trump at $.49, Rubio at $.32 and Cruz at $.14.  No one else is in double digits. Clearly, the entire world of pundits and pollsters all believe that Trump, Rubio or Cruz will be the nominee.

We now have three questions that will be soon answered in relation to the future of political elections:

1. Is media coverage enough to get voters to their voting locations? If so, then Trump will prevail.

2. Is a ground game and grassroots support the most important factor? If so, then Cruz and Rubio will spar for the nod.

3. Is the Republican party going to find a way to place the nomination into traditional hands? That would favor Kasich, Christie or Bush.

Tomorrow will show us where we stand. My heart tells me that Cruz will dominate and win handily. My head tells me that Trump is going to walk away with Iowa and the nomination, if he wins. However, it would be unprecedented for a non-politician to get all the way to the nomination on their very first try. It is especially so in the Republican party. So my sense of history tells me this could be an historical outcome.

It will be good to see whether objective analysis becomes more or less accurate over time. Either way, I hope we nominate a candidate who can help us achieve our objectives, including nominating conservative judges and helping us rein in government largesse. I am interested to see what happens now with all of the GOTV operations in full swing. Good luck and may the best conservative win!