Diary

FiveThirtyEight Demonstrates Conclusively the Bias of Statistics and the Real Danger of Polling

FiveThirtyEight.com is a website born from a blog on Daily Kos, who, for anyone living in a political cave over the past few years, is a very left-wing site.  Nate Silver started a blog where he applied statistics to an analysis of polls.  His conservative credentials were burnished by the New York Times acquiring his website in 2010.  Then, in 2013, his site moved to ownership by ESPN, which is owned by ABC, which is owned by Disney, which has become pretty much the epicenter of LGBT rights and religious persecution in the United States.

The central purpose of having Nate Silver’s site over at ESPN is legitimacy.  He writes about baseball and he writes about all kinds of objective statistics.  What could be harmful, right?  ESPN, after all, is the network that publicized the first gay, interracial kiss in sports for an athlete who claims that coming out is why he does not play professionally.

Sean Trende and Nate Silver, both of the site, have names with credibility in the polling community.  If you do a cursory search, they are lauded with many awards for their objective coverage.  So where is the fix?

Right after [mc_name name=’Rep. John Boehner (R-OH)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’B000589′ ] resigned, they both wrote articles, interestingly enough, one yesterday and one today.  Both have fancy graphs and long explanations for why Boehner was the best leader of the Republican Party since the 1940s, or perhaps even earlier.  Both tout how dangerous Boehner leaving is for the Republicans, as well as trying to prove that the shutdown was a horrible event for the party.

Of the two, Sean Trende appears much more neutral.  Nate Silver comes to the conclusion that the Republicans have been more unified under Boehner than ever.  Of course, the obvious reason for this is because Boehner never ever proposed anything controversial.  For him to get unity, he basically supported the Obama agenda.  Silver admits in his article that the Republican Congress were among the least productive ever, and then turns around and argues that the primary reason for this is that Boehner scheduled votes that had no chance of success with Obama as President.

There is a massive thrust among liberal circles to take the following actions: propose something radical, decry resistance as radical itself, litigate it as the norm and, upon the Supreme Court legitimizing the radicality, criminalizing any dissent.  There are few moderates left because everyone has been made to care.  These articles are written to demoralize conservatives and to convince the general public that somehow [mc_name name=’Rep. John Boehner (R-OH)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’B000589′ ] was better than whomever else comes along.

When your opponent laments the loss of your Team Captain, you know for sure that they should have never been in that role in the first place.  Based on that logic, whomever the media laments us losing as a candidate for President we should show the door immediately.  I know longer subscribe to those who claim to be the “Voice of Reason” when the only voice they lend reason to subverts our principles.  We should be wary of their projections because, as we already knew but now know much better, even one percent can throw an election to these “neutral” observers.