Diary

Morning Briefing for July 29, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing
For July 29, 2011

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This is going to be a fun day with a vote this morning on John Boehner’s plan. If you want, you can listen to me cover it all live on the radio. I’ll be filling in for Neal Boortz. You can listen live from 8:30 a.m. to 1p.m. by going to http://wsbradio.com and call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK.

— Erick

1. The Worst Negotiators

2. Five (Fairly) Short Points

3. Here’s the Latest Democrat Plan

4. RINOs

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1. The Worst Negotiators

I cannot decide who the worst negotiators are, Republican leaders or House conservatives.John Boehner’s plan couldn’t get the votes last night so Boehner had to agree to add language conditioning a vote on a balanced budget amendment — an amendment House Republicans said could not pass so there was no reason to pursue Cut, Cap, and Balance. The vote will now be today.The vote now is all about fear and messaging — fear of blame and a very weak message. In fact, the House will send a weaker message than Cut, Cap, and Balance. It’ll also get less votes in either House than Cut, Cap, and Balance.Last night on Sean Hannity’s show, Senator Rand Paul said around a dozen Republican Senators will vote against Boehner’s plan. And they must. Because if they do not, I have a sneaking suspicion that Harry Reid will strip out the balanced budget amendment language and the second vote on the debt ceiling, send it back to the House, and get it passed with a hundred Democrats.House Conservatives who don’t like the plan, but are willing to trade their vote for a balanced budget amendment are about to be force fed the plan they don’t like by Harry Reid and all with their help.Frankly, the House Republicans have turned this vote into a cult of personality vote. It is not about saving the Republic, fighting Obama, or cutting the debt. And you remember that when they vote for it.John Boehner has convinced House Republicans that they are both getting a good deal and that if it fails, Boehner himself is in jeopardy. So House Republicans will vote for the plan, see the Senate either kill it or butcher it, and then be stuck. It’s all about John Boehner now — nothing else.To console themselves, Boehner is going to give House conservatives their balanced budget amendment language and then have them do the very thing they promised they’d fight — fund Obamacare.Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. Five (Fairly) Short Points

(1)  House Republicans are walking into an enormous trap. The Boehner plan is sufficiently similar to the Reid plan, in virtually all important respects, that its passage will lead to the following compromise:  

  •  The adoption of Boehner’s ten years of sham cuts,which will be ephemeral beyond fiscal year 2012. Even John McCain said tonight that Gramm-Rudman (whose “sequestration” provisions are the enforcement mechanism for Boehner) became worthless because Congress just started declaring emergencies.
  • A commission which will report out large tax increases which cannot be filibustered. The “deciders” on the commission will be six Pelosi/Reid people and one squish Republican, who will be corralled into submission by:
  • A “trigger” which will make the pressure currently being applied to Congress seem small by comparison.

(2) Unless you can guarantee that it will go to the states, a guarantee of a losing vote on the balanced budget amendment is worthless.(3) Dick Morris is correct that if Tuesday comes and goes, with only a shut-down of unessential government agencies, the American people will see Obama’s fear-mongering for what it is.(4) Furthermore, as 2008 taught us, the GOP can sell all of its principles and spend the better part of a trillion dollars and the stock market will still continue to fall –- particularly since Standard & Poor’s is about to downgrade the U.S. for being too timid in debt reduction.(5) Finally, Obama is currently reeling from his poor stewardship. For Republicans to capitulate and give him a “compromise” will reset him on a glide path to reelection. The liberal media is currently “spinning” that Republicans have won, but, after they lose, their surrender will be reported for what it was.Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. Here’s the Latest Democrat Plan

Well, we really stuck it to the Democrats today. Instead of passing Cut, Cap, and Balance, a plan that will never pass the Senate and would have foisted the blame of a default upon us (supposedly), we orchestrated a plan to really own them. We came up with Boehner plan 2.0 that..well, …..will not pass the Senate – and will force a default, unless we agree to a watered down version of the watered down version.As of late this afternoon, the underpinnings of a compromise Democrat plan were beginning to materialize.Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. RINOs

I see a lot of John Boehner Plan supporters mockingly referring to guys like Mike Pence as “RINOs”.I have not and will not.Let’s be clear that while a number of us in the past few days have been called hobbits and “pro-Obama” this remains a disagreement among guys who are typically friends.I disagree with Mike Pence and Allen West on this one. They are not RINOs and anyone who thinks they are is as deserving as the mental ward as John Boehner and his leadership team for dividing a group of people who stood united last week.The problem as I see it is that we have a lot of good guys who are being team players at the expense of their principles.Please click here for the rest of the post.