Noises on the Ground

In Georgia: Saxby Chambliss may be able to get out without a runoff. That’s still not the odds on favorite scenario this afternoon, but he looks to be in a better position. Even if he goes into a runoff, if he is ahead by 7% or more, he is going to win the runoff. If he is 5% of less going into the runoff, Martin will win.

In Minnesota: It looks like Norm Coleman will win re-election today, as will Michelle Bachmann.

In Kentucky: I’m hearing McConnell is probably okay now.

Because of the trends, look for a leadership challenge to Harry Reid beginning tomorrow. Already, Democratic Senators are privately whispering that Harry Reid won’t be able to carry the left-wing’s water and run for re-election at the same time without compromising both.

Nationally: I’m hearing that voter trends across the battleground states are reflected pretty well in the battleground poll. There are shifts toward McCain, but we won’t know if it is enough to put him in the White House until later tonight. Keep your eyes on Pennsylvania. If he wins it, he is President. If he loses it, he probably is not.

In the States: Keep your eye on the state legislative races today for how partisan breakdowns go. Right now there are 15 GOP controlled states, 10 that are split between the parties, and 24 that are controlled by Democrats. Nebraska is a non-partisan legislature. The races today are going to set the stage for the redistricting battles in 2011. The 2010 legislative races, whose incumbents will be set today, will determine if the GOP has a reasonable shot at taking back the U.S. House of Representatives.