Diary

WaterCooler, Tuesday! 11/8/2016 - Open Thread - "Hillary Clinton is 89% to defeat Republican nominee Donald Trump!"

watercooler featured

And the winner is …

“On the eve of Election Day Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is 89 percent to defeat Republican nominee Donald Trump … To put this in perspective on the eve of their elections: Obama 2012 68%, Obama 2008 91%, and Bush 2004 55%.” – David Rothchild, Economist, PredictWise


Remember this, folks – I am a Hillbilly, and I don’t always Bet the same way I talk. Good advice is one thing, but smart gambling is quite another.  – Hunter S. Thompson

Here you have it: The online bettor’s market’s best bet on the outcome of the 2016 presidential election!

This electoral map is derived solely from betting sites like Betfair, prediction sites like PredictWise and the granddaddy of all presidential crowdsourcing markets, Iowa Electronic Markets. Check RealClearPolitics for a polling average, and no tossups map for comparison.

 

bettor_electoral_map

THE 2016 battleground state will be North Carolina where Clinton is up by only .13%. Although Trump is super close to Clinton in Arizona is +2.2%, Iowa is +2.3%, and Ohio is +1%, the bettors market has consistently favored him, so I’m giving those states to the Republican candidate. Clinton, on the other hand, narrowly leads in Florida at +1.3%, Nevada at +3.4%, and New Hampshire at +1.5% and so they’re Democrat-blue on the bettors’ map.


Why is Donald Trump the odds-on favorite to lose?

At the end of the day – figuratively and literally – we like predictability. It’s in our DNA to avoid change and embrace what we know. Today will likely be a reversal of 8 years ago when 52% of voters chose the hope-of-change candidate, and more like 2012 when many voted from a reluctance to rock an already unsteady boat.

I have written many times over the past few months that Donald Trump’s most offending trait is not his untrustworthiness; it’s his unpredictability. Jeb Bush called Trump the “chaos candidate” during the primaries, and Trump has worn the mantle proudly.

The truth is, though, that chaos and unpredictability can be exciting and movement making, but neither is a place where the average person wants to live.

 


Today in History. 8 November 1864 – Abraham Lincoln elected to his second term as president.

National Day of Chaos Never Dies.  This Holiday isn’t meant to be celebrated today; it’s intended for November 9th. As 2016 campaigning ends, the prevailing feeling of utter confusion or disorder that’s been building over the previous 17 months can’t help but normalize, and run-of-the-mill chaos will resume as just a part of life.  This year, and on this day Chaos Never Dies is a reminder that our disproportionate share of turmoil we’ve been experiencing is winding down and it’s time to be at peace with the chaos.


Welcome, RedStater’s, to the WaterCooler! It’s RedState’s only Daily open thread. How’d it go at your polling station? Did you encounter voting trolls? Short or long lines? Any weirdness or just mundane? Share below in the ample space below.