Diary

Leaning States

According to the Rasmussen Daily Tracking McCain has a slight lead over Obama in the Electoral College, 200 to 193 respectivly. This is for solid partisan states only if you add states that are leaning one way or the other Obama has a 12 point lead. The interesting thing is that in states like Minnesota, that has been blue since the 1976 election, the gap is narrowing. As recent as mid July Obama held an 18 percentage point lead. That lead is now all but gone at only 4% Obama still in the lead. In the same state Obama holds a 12% lead in the “favorable” rating but he also hold the lead in the “very unfavorable” column by 11% and McCain leads in “somewhat favorable” by 15%. The same tend holds true in Washington(11) and Pennsylvania(21).

This is a good sign as we count down to the debates and the issues take center stage. As we saw in Saddleback and in a host of other ways Obamas light dims when he is cut loose from his advisers and begins to show his actual feelings on issues. If McCain can keep up the vigor and spark he has shown since the RNC and continues to keep Obama off track than he should still have the upper hand going into the debates. Besides the Democrate Presidential Primary, which he won on personality, Obama has never had tuff opposition.