Obama 48% and sinking, and why you should watch Rasmussen and ignore the other polls

Everybody is aware of political polls. Most conservatives view most polls as suspect at best, a propaganda tool of the American left. Demonstrating the foundation of that suspicion is not required to make my point, so I won’t bother, but a typical conservative will dismiss out of hand any poll not from Zogby or Rasmussen.

While both the majority media and the political left have their purposes for fudging their public polls to accomplish political ends, it’s also true that the political left wants to know the true numbers. Even crooked businesses will show one set of books to the IRS, yet keep another set that shows the true state of the business. They are, after all, in the business of making a profit.

So I ask you this: do you really think that if the Democrats really believed Obama’s approval-disapproval rating was 58-30 (CBS News/NYT, yesterday), and the Democrats led 50-44 (Gallup, 2 weeks ago) in a generic congressional ballot, the House Blue Dogs would have given the finger this week to Pelosi, Emanuel, and Obama, and the leadership would have allowed such impudence?

Nah, me neither.

But maybe they believe Obama is actually down to 48-51, and the Democrats trail 39-42. like Rasmussen says. I submit to you that both the Obama administration and the Democrats on Capitol Hill are very, very interested in the Rasmussen polls, particularly the presidential tracking poll and the generic congressional ballot.

And they are alarmed.

Shall we look at some numbers?


  • all polling data has been garnered from two tracking polls on RealClearPolitics.com, a site noted for neutrality and diligent attention to research and detail: The President Job Approval and the Generic Congressional Vote
  • For the purposes of the presidential poll comparisons I have used Rasmussen on one hand, and on the other hand the average of these 4: Gallup, ABC News/Washington Post, Pew Research, and CBS News/New York Times from comparable time frames. For the purposes of the congressional generic ballot, I have used Rasmussen, Gallup, and Quinnipiac.
  • All the numbers come from the RCP links above. Polling dates don’t match each other exactly, and some outfits poll more often than others. I have matched things up as best I could.
  • We address only the House. I hate the Senate, and it is therefore irrelevant :o)

Feb 15, Porkulus is passed

The bill passed 244-188, with no Republicans and 11 Democrats crossing over. The polls at that time:

Presidential approval-disapproval:
Rasmussen: 60-39
Others: 65-21

congressional generic ballot, Democrat-Republican:
Rasmussen: 41-37
Gallup: 53-41

Obama at this time was clearly wildly popular. The Republicans stood firm, but only 10 Democrats crossed over. Looking back, it’s clear that the Republicans finally at last found their souls, and the Democrats’ raw greed became evident. Some even said that this was the Democrat’s Pyrrhic Victory – won decisively, but costing so much political capital it would prove their undoing. Thank you, that was me.

April 15

Presidential approval-disapproval:
Rasmussen: 58-41
Others: 64-27

congressional generic ballot, Democrat-Republican:
Rasmussen: 38-41
Quinnipiac: 41-34

As time has gone by, people actually get to read Porkulus. While the typical polls show both Obama and the Congressional Democrats bleeding very little support, Rasmussen’s numbers trickle slightly downward and begin to separate noticeably from the others. Meanwhile, the media coverage is glowing and Obama’s agenda is seemingly unstoppable.

June 26, Cap and Trade passes the House

The bill passed 219-212, with 8 Republicans and 44 Democrats crossing over. The polls:
Presidential approval-disapproval:
Rasmussen: 53-46
Others: 61-30

congressional generic ballot, Democrat-Republican:
Rasmussen: 41-39
Quinnipiac: 42-34

This bill squeaked by the House amid highly contentious bipartisan opposition. The truth is, a whole bunch of Democrats needed cover, and leadership allowed as many as possible to cross over and still get it passed. Clearly more would have liked to vote no.

Meanwhile, most polls show Obama barely inching downward from his opening 65-21. But Rasmussen shows support is slipping dangerously. Considering the close vote, and the fact that the Senate has buried this and won’t even consider it before Sept 28, which polls do you think the Democrats are watching?

July 29, Nationalized Health Care is on life support

The polls:
Presidential approval-disapproval:
Rasmussen: 48-51
Others: 56-35

congressional generic ballot, Democrat-Republican:
Rasmussen: 39-42
Gallup: 50-44

While most polls show Obama with commanding if slipping 56-35 approval numbers, he is now underwater at Rasmussen, 48-51, where he’s been for a week. His June 22 presser was a complete flop, remembered only for raising the Gates-Cambridge flap to week-long headlines. Obama’s earlier order to have a bill on his desk before the August recess has long since been a joke. Numerous directives from Obama, Pelosi, Rahm Emanuel, and Steny Hoyer have been laughed off by the Blue Dogs in the House.

Everybody now heads for the August recess, where multitudes of Americans are waiting to express their opposition, and their general displeasure with the Democrats’ failure to improve the economy while proposing costly new measures. The majority media trundle merrily along as if mere road bumps stand between the Democrats and their agenda. But the Democrats have read the poll numbers.

The future: Obama agenda is DOA

Cap and Trade is DOA. Nationalized Health Care is DOA. Porkulus 2 won’t even make it to the floor of the House. DOA.

Obama’s agenda is sinking like the Graf Spee — not blown apart at the hands of the powerless Republicans in Congress, but scuttled by his own party which recognizes it is doomed. They dearly want all their leftist goals, including IMHO the Blue Dogs. Truthfully, they’ll try to sneak much of it into law by attaching amendments to Defense authorization bills and the like, so it is up to us to keep a sharp eye out for that sort of thing.

But the full frontal assault is done. And it had alot more to do with 48-51 than it did with 56-35.

So, you watch Rasmussen and Zogby, and ignore the rest. That’s what the bad guys are doing.