As a subject matter expert in my field, I understand that people look to me for advice and guidance. Some believe my schooling and experience make my opinions unassailable and substitute my thoughts for their own. Accepting the pronouncements of “experts” is a lazy substitute for critical analysis and reasoned thinking. Information can be confusing, common sense clarifies and cuts through the confusion. It is essential in helping us find the truth. Most of the confusion and hysteria surrounding Covid is the result of folks surrendering their common sense to the proclamations of “experts” who are not always motivated by the truth. We see this playing out every day in every way with our response to the Covid-19 virus and resulting lockdowns. Let us try to apply some common sense to Covid to reduce our fear and allow reason to resume control of our thinking.
Mortality: The percentage of those dying from the virus is dropping rapidly as is the number of those dying from Covid. Common sense tells us that the drop in actual deaths may indicate that the virus has lost its potency and/or that those who have not succumbed to Covid never will. Remember that infections are not deaths and that the overwhelming number of new cases are asymptomatic or mild and do not require hospitalizations.
The media, who is invested in creating fear about Covid, has spent a great deal of time falsely touting the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) as the only indicator of risk of death. CFR measures the death rate by dividing the number of confirmed deaths by the number of confirmed cases. It is a highly inaccurate metric where the actual number of cases differs from the confirmed cases, as with Covid. Unfortunately, the CFR is the metric being used by government and the media to terrorize Americans into ignorance and compliance.
Because CFR varies by population and location, any reporting on the CFR without breaking the numbers down by location and population further misleads. This is demonstrated by the huge discrepancies in the CFR among various cities and populations throughout the United States. For example, a few large cities, the elderly, infirmed and those with comorbidities are at much greater risk than the general population. Controlling for at-risk populations and location reduces the risk of death for the rest of the United States to almost zero.
The media and others, who are invested in promoting hysteria, are inflating the number of deaths from Covid to drive up the CFR. For the same reason, they refuse to acknowledge or report on the fact that the actual number of people infected with the virus is much higher-perhaps, as much as, 85 times higher than reported. As more testing is completed, the mortality rates will surely decrease.
The more accurate measure of Covid mortality is the Infection Fatality Rate. The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) measures how likely it is that someone infected with Covid will die. The IFR is the number of deaths from Covid divided by the total number of actual infections regardless of confirmation. Science now confirms what our common sense has been telling us all along- that many more people have been infected by Covid than confirmed. As a result, IFR is a more accurate measure of the danger of death imposed by Covid. If we calculate IFR using a recent, yet conservative, CDC estimate, that there may be ten (10) times as many Covid cases than confirmed (3.6m), the death rate drops to 0.3% which is similar to the flu. It is important to note that other researchers believe that the multiplier of actual cases to confirmed cases may be 85 (not 10), as in the case of the Santa Clara study. If that is the case, the IFR for Covid will be much lower than for the flu.
The final metric used to measure the mortality rate of a virus is the Crude Mortality Rate (CMR). The CMR measures the probability that any individual in the population will die from the disease. If we use the CMR to measure the risk of death from Covid, the death rate barely registers. In my opinion, this is an essential metric in that it allows us to measure the virus’s transmission rate as well. If “only” a small percentage of the population is infected, as currently stands in the U.S., what does that say about the potency of the virus?
Notwithstanding the relative lack of testing (40m) and inflated death count (130,000), even the press favored CFR currently stands at “only” 3%. That means that, at a minimum, 97% of all persons whose infections are confirmed recover. It is important to me to share that nothing, in my analysis, is meant to disrespect anyone who has died from Covid. Those victims and their loved ones are in my prayers.
Shelter in Place: We cannot ever outrun a world full of germs and viruses. We face billions of microbes every day and continue to live and prosper. We were locked down for weeks with barely a soul out and about and yet the virus was not eradicated. Common sense tells us that lockdowns only serve to extend, not end, the life of the virus. No one, other than the “experts”, believes that we can or should continue to lockdown especially considering the low mortality rates and available treatments.
Treatment: Many doctors in the U.S. and abroad have successfully treated Covid patients with Hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin. Despite the negative press, this inexpensive cocktail has proven to be highly effective, especially when administered early after infection. The treatment is so effective that those seeking to exploit Covid for political purposes faked a study to discredit its efficacy. Common sense tells me that there is little to fear from a virus than can be so easily cured.
Vaccine: It is months or years away, if ever, from being developed. Experts have no idea if a vaccine will be effective. In addition, all vaccines carry the risk of serious side effects when administered. Common sense tells us that we cannot continue to shutter our lives and economy and face economic, psychological, and physical destruction waiting for a vaccine that may never come. Moreover, according to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Dr. Fauci, who is against fully reopening our economy and country until a vaccine is produced, stands to gain financially from a vaccine. Common sense tells us that, if Mr. Kennedy is correct, Dr. Fauci’s credibility, at the least, should be called into serious question.
Masks: They do not work to prevent the spread of Covid. Masks may offer the wearer psychological protection, but they do not protect against transmitting or receiving the virus. Simply put, the Covid virus has a diameter of 0.12 microns. The medical N95 mask (which is unavailable to most) is incapable of filtering out particles less than 0.3 microns. Cloth masks, bandanas and home-made masks filter even less particles than the N95.
A friend posted a very illustrative and simple test on LinkedIn. Since cigarette smoke has a range of 0.1 to 1.0 microns peaking from 0.2 to 0.25 microns its size is approximately that of the virus particles. The test asks that you light up a cigarette (for those who do not smoke, do not inhale) and exhale through your mask. What you will discover is that the smoke passes right through the mask. Common sense tells us that if the mask did not stop the smoke, it does not stop the virus either.
Survey after survey shows that 8 out of 10 of us wear masks daily even at home. We must wear them when going out. We must wear them while shopping just about everywhere. In some states, it is mandatory to wear them all the time. Many of us also wear them when alone in our cars or walking alone or working by ourselves in our yards. Common sense asks, if masks are effective at preventing a wearer from inhaling the Covid virus, why, as many claim, is the virus still spreading and why are so many mask wearers angry that a few of us choose not to wear masks?
Mask wearing is detrimental to our health. The increased level of carbon dioxide in our systems from rebreathing in our exhaled air lowers our immune systems, causes dizziness, nausea, lethargy, and heart problems. Masks also cause psychological and emotional damage. They increase fear, feelings of separation, division, and hostility toward our neighbors. They reduce our sense of security.
It is especially troubling to me to see, as I mentioned above, many incredibly fearful individuals wearing masks while driving alone or out walking alone in the fresh air. To me, this is akin to wearing a snorkel on dry land to keep from drowning. These poor souls are like drowning victims who, in their panic, flail away, desperately trying to find safety. Their fear, not the virus, is causing their pain and creating a hell worse than the one they are trying to prevent.
Sadly, masks are a political weapon not a health tool. Politicians are encouraging or mandating their use to groom the public, as a pedophile grooms a young victim, to accept government as the ultimate solution to life’s problems. Masks are a part of the process of government control and demoralization that many in power hope, will browbeat the public into concluding that we are not safe if we are free.
Protestors: Unlike their approach to those who protested the lockdowns, politicians have not imposed fines nor had any of the Black Lives Matter protestors arrested for violating lockdown orders. One governor went so far as to say that black Americans should not have to wear masks, they should only be mandatory for white people. What does your common sense tell you about such conflicting edicts and the truth about the seriousness of the threat from Covid?
Covid related death and devastation: There is little doubt in the medical community that non-Covid related deaths will outnumber those directly caused by Covid. Death and devastation from Covid related suicide and mental illness caused by financial ruin, divorce, undiagnosed and untreated illnesses because of Covid prioritization at health care facilities, just to name a few, is already starting to be felt. If, as New York State Governor Cuomo implored, we must act to save every life threatened by Covid, then common sense would conclude that Covid related deaths and devastation must also be considered in setting public policy.
I am not an infectious disease doctor, or a physician nor am I am telling anyone what is right for them. My hope is simply that this article encourages or inspires others to use common sense to allay some of the irrational fear surrounding Covid. We have sacrificed a great deal of our liberty in the name of Covid with no end in sight. A recent poll showed that 65% of the American public still fears Covid enough to delay returning to our normal routines. This 65% continues to willingly surrender their basic liberty in a quest for, what they perceive as, temporary safety. Let me remind them of what Ben Franklin said, “Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.” Isn’t it time we cast fear aside, trust the facts and rely on our common sense? Getting out from under the cloud of fear despair caused by the draconian lockdowns is essential for the well-being of each of us and our nation. It cannot come a moment too soon.