Wild Mass Guessing

If you’re familiar with TVTropes.org, chances are you’ve stumbled across the Wild Mass Guessing pages for the various shows, movies, video games, comics etc that propose numerous theories for explaining every strange thing in the plot of the story, the future developments of the story, or the story’s place in a larger meta-fictional context.

(I personally think Labyrinth is part of the larger Muppet Universe with Fragglerock, but you are free to have your own [WRONG] opinions).

Reading over them can be funny, disturbing and mind blowing all at the same time.  However, when you look at them and compare them to the conspiracy theories on numerous political blogs (including this one), you start to see some similarities.

Now, my own personal opinion is that conspiracy theories are for the most part bunk. If Obama was really smart and organized enough to take over the world with the UN and wild space hamsters, he’d probably be doing a lot better job than he is now. As Hanlon’s razor states, “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”

The simple fact of the matter is that the Left had relied on control over the media, education and domestic policy to create a fantasy world to maintain their power. With the advent of the Internet, conservative media and the failures of their own policies this power is waning.  Back then it was difficult to predict the ultimate result of these policies, but now with the Internet anyone can claim that they have access to all the knowledge needed to determine the future or the ultimate aims of the various power blocs in our world. Yes, we have among ourselves a veritable crop of would-be Hari Seldons.

(… From Isaac Asimov’s Foundation. Philistines.)

The problem with that though is that all of this knowledge is filtered through the perceptions of human beings, and then perceived by a human being. Some courses are obvious, some are not.  Still, I might as well try my hand at it since I want crazy conspiracy theory cred and frankly, I am bored.

So! Let’s give this a whirl, shall we?

Domestic Issues:

Even with forty years of liberal domination of education, the media, and the press, I’m still going to bet on Obama being defeated come next election unless a miracle occurs and he decides that actually working with the Republicans to improve the economy is in his best interests over sticking with the Leftist interests who got him into office.

This is highly unlikely given his voting record, psychological profile and style of leadership: Like most Big State supporters on the Right and Left his concept of leadership is entirely Authoritarian. They cannot actually defeat arguments intellectually, they must rely entirely upon the protection of the media and brute force through appeals to emotion to get things done. They are used to everyone agreeing with them, as recently covered in Ann Coulter’s Demonic and as anyone (including myself) who has had to deal with a pack of Leftists can attest.

Now, he can pull delaying tactics, he can make the election more difficult since the media still has considerable pull left (and probably will for another generation or two), and worse comes to worse he can try a 2000 Gore/Bush legal challenge (which will undoubtedly get a bad movie made for it showing the Republicans as evil and the Democrats as noble).  Ultimately though, history shows over and over again that Authoritarians only have true power within a vacuum they themselves or their environments have created. In this case, the vacuum is vanishing thanks to political, technological and economic realities.  So Obama will lose provided the Right keeps up the hard work and energy. Political movements are easiest to strangle right out of the crib and even if Obama is a failure, some aspects of the vacuum can be maintained and taken advantage of. Ultimately though, I think he will lose. History is on my side and the Tea Party movement, even in this age of smaller attention spans, is not dissipating.

Once Obama is out of office, consumer and business confidence will increase but true economic recovery will take years to truly achieve.  Obama is not the single cause, he is merely the latest surfer of a wave that has been building for years. The most fortunate aspect of our government though is that such waves of power and change are checked by the very structure of that government. While it will take time to get it back down to a reasonable size with no shortage of upheaval, the system is fundamentally sound and should survive. It will, however, take time for the US to rise again but it will like a phoenix from the ashes.

However, for the foreseeable future we will be stuck with the Left and it’s damage and so we must continue to utilize the tools at our disposal to mitigate and slowly reverse the societal decay. The energy for it still remains, otherwise the Tea Party would never have achieved so much in so short a time.  The problems remain but with real solutions being applied through better government and more citizen involvement in that government, they can be overcome.

Foreign Issues:

The “Arab Spring” is feared as a portent to another Arab-Isreali War. It is felt by many that the UN’s unilateral recognition of Palestine will be the spark that starts the fuse, and the Muslim Brotherhood’s control over Egypt through elections will be the cannon firing. All highly possible but dependent upon many things, not the least of which is Iran. Given the weakened position of the US thanks to Obama and the coming elections, it is not surprising if Iran moves faster with it’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, knowing that it is highly unlikely Obama will intervene with sufficient speed.

Obama’s reactions to an Iran-sponsored war on Israel are difficult to gauge, but more than likely they would be sped up only by the realization that to do nothing would almost certainly destroy his chances of re-election entirely.  If Iran knows this, then the chances of an all out conflict may be lessened or bolstered depending upon how they read Obama. When your enemy is weakest, that is generally the time to strike and an Obama facing the prospect of losing his next election may not be as willing to pull his punches. At the same time, with Europe’s limited military involved in Libya with the US and the anti-Israel feeling permeating the Middle East and Europe, Iran may believe that this is as good a chance as any and push it’s allies and puppets into all out attacks.

Worst case scenario of that situation is that Iran authorizes a nuclear release against Israel and Israel returns the favor in kind.  What is more likely to occur is increased attacks against Israel with the militaries of the surrounding nations covertly assisting, and another small scale war the result. If, however, Iran feels daring enough we will see all out warfare backed by Iran with the potential for a WMD release.

With the drawdown from Afghanistan and Iraq during this critical time the United States will be hard pressed to maintain authority within the region, but this is significantly increased by the ineptness of the current administration.  Iraq is more stable than Afghanistan, true, but Pakistan is in open defiance rather than covert defiance and the rest of the Middle East is increasingly unstable. It will be a massive mess and will require an entirely new foreign policy approach.

China and Russia are unlikely to change their longer term strategies: Increased economic and military power while relying on the Western media to make the US look bad. It’s worked for two decades and will probably work for another decade or so. However, the economic differences between us and them are not nearly so dire as the doomsayers say. More than likely, with the continuing impotence of Europe for the foreseeable future in the application of real political force, China, the US and Russia will remain the primary powers on Earth, with India emerging with greater influence to follow. However, unless those three combined can unite and gain the kind of logistical power the US has, it will not be a dire military challenge.

The real threats of the future, as we have only begun to understand them, come in the form of the application of economic, social, and other such soft forces that can now influence every human being on Earth through the Internet. These same forces, however, can be utilized against those who would use them to impose tyranny as long as we remember this is so.

Not full of disasters as conspiracy theorists generally demand, I know, but I’m saving the invasion of the space hamsters for another essay.