March 31: NY 20 Special Election (What's The Problem)

NY 20 has its special election and our candidate has been House Minority leader for over 25 years, Jim Tedisco, and his opponent is a new comer with no legislature experience, Murphy, and yet polls show a very close race with a slight edge to Murphy.  

NY 20 voted for Obama but has more then 80,000 registered Republicans so I have to ask why might we lose this seat?  Tedisco has come out against stimulus package while Murphy is for it and the media is attempting to portray this as a campaign over it.

3 weeks ago everyone was saying we had this in the bag and now what gives?  Why aren’t Republicans coming home to roost as they say and motivated?