Diary

New Polls (Congress Polls MO, WA, IN/MO Gov)

Survey USA has some new polls up on some key Congress races in November

MO 6 Graves (R)

Graves 48%

Barnes 44%

Democrat Challenger Barnes Creeps-Up on Incumbent Republican Graves in MO6: In an election for United States House of Representatives from Missouri’s 6th Congressional District today, 08/01/08, incumbent Republican Sam Graves edges Democrat Kay Barnes 48% to 44%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KCTV-TV Kansas City. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 10 weeks ago, Graves is flat, Barnes is up. Among men, Graves had led by 19, now leads by 23. Among women, the two had been tied; today, Barnes leads by 17 points — a 40-point gender gap. Barnes continues to lead among all age groups, but by smaller margins in most: among voters age 35 to 49, Graves had led by 11, now leads by 1. Among those age 50 to 64, Graves had led by 9, now leads by 4. Among those 65+, Graves had led by 8, now leads by 2. Ten weeks ago, 19% of Democrats crossed over to vote for Republican Graves. Today, that number has fallen to 12%. The number of Republicans crossing over to vote for Democrat Barnes is effectively unchanged, from 7% then to 8% now. Independents had favored Graves by 15, now favor him by 20.

IN 9 Hill (D)

Hill 49%

Sodrel 42%

Schansberg (L) 4%

Baron Hill Leads Mike Sodrel In Biennial IN-9 House Contest: In an election for US House of Representatives in Indiana’s 9th Congressional District today, 07/31/08, incumbent Democrat Baron Hill leads Republican Mike Sodrel by 7 points, 49% to 42%. Libertarian Eric Schansberg today takes 4% of the vote; 5% are undecided. Among women, Hill leads by 9 points; among men, Hill leads by 5. Among voters age 18-49, Hill leads by 6; among those 50+, Hill leads by 8. Both Hill and Sodrel hold 8 in 10 of their partisan voters; independents, 14% of the electorate, split evenly between the two, with 9% of independents choosing Libertarian Schansberg. Hill and Sodrel have run against each other in three previous elections; in the last, two years ago, Schansberg also ran, making this year’s race an exact rematch of 2006, when Hill Beat Sodrel by 5 points to re-take his seat. Full history of the contest:

1998: Hill first elected, beating Republican Jean Leising, 51% to 48%2000: Hill re-elected over Republican Michael Bailey, 54% to 44%.2002: Hill re-elected over Republican Mike Sodrel, 51% to 46%.2004: Sodrel elected, beating Hill, by a margin of 1,425 votes.2006: Hill elected, taking seat back from Sodrel, 50% to 45%.

WA 8 Reichert (R)

Reichert 50%

Burner 44%

WA 8th: Reichert Lead Remains Unchanged in Burner Rematch: Incumbent Republican Congressman Dave Reichert defeats Democratic challenger Darcy Burner by 6 points today, in a rematch of their 2006 election fight, according to this latest exclusive KING-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today, it’s Reichert 50%, Burner 44%, essentially unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll released six weeks ago, when it was Reichert 51%, Burner 45%. Among men, Reichert leads by 14 points; among women, Burner leads by 3 — a 17 point gender gap, again identical to the numbers from six weeks ago. 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for Reichert; 8% of Republicans cross over to vote for Burner. Independents today tie, a notable change from six weeks ago, when independents favored Reichert by 13 points. Burner, a former Microsoft executive, lost to Reichert in 2006 by 2 points, 51% to 49%.

Governors Poll Missouri (Republicans have closed Gap)

Nixon 49% Nixon 50%

Hulshof 42% Steelman 41%

MO Statehouse Still Leans To Democrat Takeaway, 3 Months to Vote … But, Momentum with GOP: In an election for Missouri Governor today, 08/01/08, 95 days to the vote, Democrat Jay Nixon defeats either of his likely Republican opponents, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KCTV-TV in Kansas City and KSDK-TV in St. Louis. Today, Nixon, Missouri’s Attorney General, defeats Republican Congressman Kenny Hulshof 48% to 42%; Nixon defeats Republican State Treasurer Sarah Steelman 50% to 41%. But, Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released ten weeks ago, Nixon has lost ground. Then, Nixon led Hulshof by 24 points and led Steelman by 25 points. Today, Nixon leads Hulshof by 6 points and Steelman by 9. Against either Republican, Nixon carries at least half of women and voters age 50+. Men and younger voters split their vote if Hulshof is the Republican nominee, and narrowly prefer Nixon in a race against Steelman. Against Hulshof, 15% of Republicans cross over to vote for Nixon; against Steelman, 20% of Republicans cross over. Should Missouri voters be required to produce a photo-ID when they vote? 64% of likely voters say “yes.” Those who say “yes” favor each of the Republican candidates by 8 points; those who say “no” favor Nixon by 2 ½:1.

Some good news for us.

I am a bit concerned at how close Graves poll is in Missouri and hopefully Sodrel can win it back in Indiana although Libertarian candidate is hurting him.