Diary

A Conservative (but not that kind!) Prediction of the Republican Pickup in the U.S. House in 2010: Part 2

Michael Barone:  “All that said, this Democratic spin sounds a lot like the Republican spin back in the 2006 cycle. If the numbers don’t change too much from 2004, Republicans said then, we can hold on. If the numbers don’t change too much from 2008, Democrats think now, they can hold on.

 

But the Republicans, as George W. Bush said, took “a thumping” in 2006. And most signs suggest Democrats will take a thumping this year, too…”

 

 

IA

Modest.  Former Republican Governor Terry Branstad will win a record fifth term in the Governor’s office, and Republican Senator Grassley will breeze to a record sixth term.

IA 3

Democrat Boswell has a history of close elections; he barely won in 2006 during a great Democrat year.  He is also old, and looks his age, is in a Republican leaning district, and is going up against a youngish, but politically experienced, state Senator –Brad Zaun.  A recent poll put Zaun ahead of the incumbent.  Boswell should lose this year.   

+1

KS

Huge.  Republican Senator Brownback, the nicest man in the U.S. Senate, is going to waltz into the Governor’s mansion, while the winner of the Republican primary will fill his seat – but not replace him – in the Senate.

KS 3 & KS 4

Kansas used to be a competitive state when it came to House races, but the 2010 results won’t show it.  The GOP will sweep the House delegation, holding two of their own open seats and picking up the quasi-open seat of Democrat Dennis Moore, whose wife is running for his open seat.  This is both too cute and too stupid by half.

+1

KY

Modest.  Rand Paul will win a term in the U.S. Senate – this year and this state is too Republican for even him to blow it.  He does seems like a one term wonder, though.

KY 3 & KY 6

Although KY 3 has been talked up as a possible pickup, as the one seat that leans Democrat in national elections, John Yarmuth has to be considered a strong favorite.  However, Republican Andy Barr has impressed observers with his candidacy in the more Republican leaning KY 6 against Democrat incumbent Ben Chandler.  Still, Chandler should squeak by in any baseline count.

0

LA

None.  Republican Senator Vitter will easily win a second term because his state is so conservative and so anti-Obama.

LA 2 & LA 3

In LA, the GOP will trade the 2nd District for the 3rd.  Representative Cao has done what he could to hold the 2nd, but unless some independents run strong races, any Democrat should send him packing.  Meanwhile, Melancon’s district will revert to the GOP.

0

MD

Mixed.  Although Dem Senator Mikulski will coast to re-election, the governor’s race will be very competitive and former Governor Ehrlich has a good chance of winning.

MD 1

In MD 1, one of only two districts that the GOP dominates in this state, Freshman Democrat Frank Kravitol is running on borrowed time.  Republican Andy Harris – barring a primary upset – should take advantage of the better year and the huge Ehrlich coattails (in that district) to reverse his narrow loss in ’08.

+1

MA

Modest.  The GOP’s Charlie Baker should win a plurality victory over Obama 1.0, otherwise known as Deval Patrick, whose tenure as Governor has been as successful as that of Jon Corzine.

MA 10

The open MA 10 is the one district where non-Democrats (mostly independents) control the Congressional outcome; Senator Brown won 60% here.  In this year, the GOP has a real chance to win this race, although the conservative guess would be that the Democrats narrowly hold on.

0

MI

Big.  MI has been mismanaged to a colossal scale by the Democrats, who in 2010 will pay the price by losing the Governorship in a landslide.

MI 1, MI 7 & MI 9

The Republican nominee should win the seat of retiring Bart Stupak, which leans Republican.  Also, former Congressman Walberg is likely to win back his former district, i.e., the 7th, which only narrowly voted him out in a horrible Republican year.  Republicans also have a decent chance to oust Democrat Gary Peters, although Peters is still favored.

+2

MN

None.  The open governorship should narrowly stay with the Republicans if the Democrats choose politically unimpressive former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton as their candidate.

MN 1, & MN 6

Fresh off their theft of a U.S. Senate seat in 2008, the Dems have been talking tough about picking up MN 6.  However, if they couldn’t beat (or cheat) Bachmann in 2008, they won’t do it in 2010.  Meanwhile, the GOP is talking up its challenger to Tim Walz, but Walz still must be favored. 

0

MS

None.  There are no statewide races this year.

MS 1 & MS 4

In this environment, state Senator Alan Nunnelee seems likely to beat freshman (plus) Democrat Travis Childers in a district that is heavily conservative and usually Republican.  The GOP also has an outside chance – but still just a chance – to pick up the 4th District, where Gene Taylor holds what should be a solid Republican seat.

+1

MO

Modest.  Polling shows that in the battle of the dynasties, Republican Roy Blunt has the edge over Democrat Robin Carnahan.

MO 3 & MO 4

Although his sister is likely to go down this year, Congressman Carnahan will likely survive in a still solid Democrat district, though his margin will certainly go down.  Also, long time Congressman Skelton should be regarded as the favorite, even though his district is heavily conservative.

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NE

Huge.  The Democrats may be unable to find an opponent for Gov. Heineman. 

NE 2

In a normal year, Republican Congressman Lee Terry, whose district narrowly went for Obama, would have a race on his hands.  However, in this environment he is safe.

0

NV

Modest.  Brian Sandoval will hammer Rory Reid by at least ten points for the open Governorship and Majority Leader Reid won’t break 45% in his losing race for re-election to the Senate.

NV 3

In 2008, Dem Dina Titus ousted an incumbent with a plurality of the vote.  The district is very evenly divided, and all polling has shown that she and Republican Joe Heck are neck and neck, usually with Heck having a slight edge.  The conservative pick – Joe Heck by a hair.

+1

NH

Mixed.  Democrat Governor Jon Lynch should win re-election by a solid but-not- spectacular margin while the GOP candidate should win the open seat in the U.S. Senate.

NH 1 & NH 2

Things are looking very bad for Democrats in NH.  Carol Shea-Porter, the beneficiary of two Democrat waves, hasn’t polled very well against any Republican.  She will finally be ousted in this Republican wave in the more Republican district in the state.  In the open Democrat leaning 2nd District, former Republican Charlie Bass looks like a winner this year.  The Dems will have a brutal primary, while Bass should more easily beat Jennifer Horn and then ride the wave back into the House.

+2

NJ

None.  There are no statewide races this year.

NJ 3 & NJ 12

Republicans won big here in 2009, but they don’t seem likely to duplicate this result in 2010.  Freshman Democrat Jon Adler has raised tons of money, and cast enough votes to fashion himself as a more independent Democrat.  He also benefits by running against a former football player, who will be hindered by his “dumb jock” image.  Expect Adler to narrowly win.  Longtime incumbent Democrat Holt might also be strongly challenged, although as of yet there has been no real evidence that he is in any particular danger. 

 0

NM

Modest.  In a wave year for the GOP, Susana Martinez should have a narrow edge in the Governor’s race.

NM 1 & NM 2

In 2008, the Dems picked up two longtime seats here, and this year the GOP is fighting to regain them.  The 2nd seems more likely to return, as it narrowly went for McCain and the former three term incumbent, Steve Pearce, who ran unsuccessfully for Senate, is challenging his replacement, freshman Harry Teague.  Democrat Teague is also facing the twin problems of business problems and the fact that Pearce is likely to outspend him.  In the 1st, Freshman Dem Martin Heinrich seems to be in a stronger position over Republican Jon Barela with a district that is far more Democrat, although a recent Survey USA poll had Heinrich narrowly behind.

+1

NY

None.  The GOP is likely to lose badly for Governor and for one Senate seat, and only has an outside chance of picking up the other Senate seat (Clinton’s).

NY 1, NY 13, NY 19, NY 20, NY 23, NY 24 & NY 29

There are lots of potential targets in this state where only two of 29 House seats are held by Republicans, but unfortunately the GOP is unlikely to capitalize on them (see below).  The GOP seems likely to pick up the open NY 29 of Democrat “Tickle Me” Massa, and probably will pick up one more, most likely NY 24, where they have a strong candidate who did very well in 2008, or possibly NY 1, NY 19, or NY 23.

+2

NC

None.  Republican Senator Burr should win a second term, but only because of the environment, as he has done little to establish himself politically. 

NC 2, NC 7, NC 8 & NC 11

Thanks to his on-camera outburst, Democrat Bobby Etheridge is now in a competitive race with his originally little known opponent, Renee Elmers.  None of the other districts are safe for the Democrats, although the individual races haven’t yet taken shape.  It seems likely though that at least one district will fall to the GOP, most likely NC 2 or NC 8.

+1

ND

Huge.  Republican Governor John Hoeven will win a landslide Senate victory for retiring Senator Byron Dorgan’s seat.

ND At- Large

Republican Rick Berg has led Democrat Congressman Earl Pomeroy for several months now in Rasmussen polls.  Berg has raised a decent amount of money.  ND is strongly anti-Obama.  Pomeroy should go down this year.

+1

OH

Modest.  Both former Republican Congressmen Kasich and Portman should be considered the favorites respectively, for Governor and Senator.

OH 1, OH 12, OH 13, OH 15, OH 16 & OH 18

Ohio has a large amount of races that are considered truly competitive.  At this point, two seem very likely to be turnovers. Former Republican Congressman Steve Chabot has a solid polling edge and monetary edge over the man who defeated him two years ago, freshman Democrat Steve Driehaus, while Steve Stivers has a shocking monetary edge over the woman who beat him, Mary Jo Kilroy.  Of the remaining four seats, only one is currently held by Republicans, and that is the safest of the four. 

+2

OR

None.  Republican Chris Dudley currently has a narrow edge for Governor, while Democrat Senator Ron Wyden still has a solid edge.

OR 4 & OR 5

Republicans missed an opportunity to oust Democrat DeFazio in OR 4 when their favored candidate self-destructed, but they are still in the hunt against Democrat Kurt Schrader in OR 5.  Republican state Representative Scott Bruun is a solid candidate running in a competitive district, but a baseline prediction would have to still give the nod to freshman Schrader.

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