Diary

Polls and Republican Turnout

I am very concerned Republican turnout will be suppressed because the polls seem to indicate Obama has all but won the election. I have been to other sites that have “fisked” both the national and state polls. These sites have convinced me the polls are not giving a true picture of the race for various reasons. One issue is with the partisan weightings. Most national polls are assuming that at least 5% more Democrats will be voting than Republicans. However, in the last election (which strongly favored the Democrats), the voter breakdown was 38%D/35%R/27%I. If the polls are re-weighted with this breakdown, Obama’s lead decreases significantly. McCain may still be slipping in the polls, but I do not think the point has yet been reached where all is lost.