CA Congressional Run-Down

As usual, I will look at different Congressional Districts in California and describe the following:- Incumbent – % of vote in 2006 – % of vote in 2004 – ACU voting record*- Challenger – Any biographical info I find- CQPolitics Rating (Safe R, Lean R, etc.)- Geography- 2004 Presidential Election Margins- 2000 Presidential Election Margins- Anything else that is note worthy & my personal opinion on this district

  • For the purpose of this post, I will consider anyone with a 90% or higher rating from the ACU to be a TrueConservative™.

CA-11Incumbent: Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-CA)Challenger: Businessman and former State Assemblyman Dean AndalCQPolitics Rating: Leans DemocraticIn 2006, Jerry McNerney, a democrat who currently holds a 4.00% ACU rating, won 53% of the vote to oust then Incumbent Richard Pombo. In 2004, Pombo beat McNerney 61.2-38.8. The district, which covers part of Alameda, San Joaquin, and Santa Clara Counties, went for 54-45 for Bush in 2004, and 52-44 for Bush in 2000.

While McNerney has outraised his opponent by about 2-1, I give Andal a decent chance of winning the seat back, and would call this a toss up.

CA-12Incumbent: Rep. Jackie Speier (D-CA)Challenger: Former USAF officer/pilot, former Commissioner of the California Transportation Commission,Greg Conlon(R)CQ Politics Rating: Safe DemocratAfter Rep. Tom Lantos’ death earlier this year (oddly enough, one day after my birthday), democrat & Jonestown survivor Jackie Speier won enough votes in the April special election to fill Lantos’ seat until November. The district, which covers about 1/4 of San Francisco and about 1/3 of San Mateo County, went for Kerry 72-27 and Gore 66-28.

CA-13Incumbent: Pete Stark (D-CA)Challenger: George Bruno (R)CQPolitics Rating: Safe DemocratACU Rating: 3.99%2006 vote %:752004 vote % (USHOR):71.62004 vote % (POTUS):Kerry 71-282000 vote %:Gore 65-29