Diary

Bob McDonnell's coat tails ... Virginia Down-ticket in Fairfax County

The national news is focusing on the McDonnell-Deeds race for governor in Virginia.  This is the nicest representation of the polling trends I’ve seen so far … I note the late tailing off for Deeds. If the embedded gizmo doesn’t work, go to Pollster.com to see it.

 But here is some polling info on the Lt. Governor (Bolling v. Wagner) and AG (Cuccinelli v. Shannon) races from today’s Richmond Times-Dispatch.

The Times-Dispatch Poll shows Bolling ahead of Jody Wagner, 47 percent to 34 percent, with 19 percent undecided. Bolling’s lead is unchanged from an earlier poll for the newspaper.

Cuccinelli is favored over Steve Shannon, 46 percent to 32 percent, with 22 percent undecided. Cuccinelli has doubled his lead from early October.

What I thought was more interesting was a bit further into the article…

GOP candidates also show surprising strength with traditional Democratic constituencies, women and young voters — an indication that Virginia Democrats, despite a string of victories since 2001, are struggling to energize their base.

Bolling, seeking a second term, has a statistically insignificant edge among women over Wagner, 40 percent to 39 percent.

Wagner is the only woman on the Virginia ballot this year. She is seeking to become the second woman to win statewide office here. Democrat Mary Sue Terry was twice elected attorney general — in 1985 and 1989.

Bolling leads in all regions, though he and Wagner are neck-and-neck in heavily Democratic Northern Virginia.

Except for voters 18 to 34, who heavily prefer Wagner, Bolling is the favorite of all other age groups.

Cuccinelli, an outspoken foe of abortion and homosexual rights, leads Shannon among women, 42 percent to 37 percent.

Cuccinelli is ahead of Shannon in all age groups, though his advantage among voters 18 to 34 is within the margin of error.

Cuccinelli leads in all regions but one, Northern Virginia, where he and Shannon — both residents of Fairfax County — are statistically tied.

The lesser publicized races for LG and AG are dead even … IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA.  A few days ago Anthony Bedell, Chairman of the Fairfax GOP, noted in an email that McDonnell-Deeds was a dead heat … IN FAIRFAX COUNTY.

So we have…

1. a GOP state-wide ticket leading everywhere but Northern Virginia … where it is a dead heat;
2. a re-vitalized Fairfax GOP running nearly a full slate of STRONG delegate candidates so that voters can actually vote for something other than a left winger; and
3. several of those those GOP Delegate candidates are raising more cash than their Dem opponents and GOPAC putting money into Delegate races.

RedState attention has moved to NY-23 in the past week…but we can use all the help that we can mustered here in the Commonwealth.  If you can spare some cash send it to a candidate of your choice (I’m partial to Jay McConville and Vicki Vasques) or to RPV .  If you can spare some time, call a candidate’s office and see where you can volunteer.  Anything will help … inside poll watching, literature drops, outside poll workers, driving older/disabled voters to the polls, running the phones in a campaign office, shuttle driving, delivering hot coffee to poll workers.  I plan to be working the outside polls from 6am to 7pm here in Fairfax … with camera ready just in case the SEIU gets unruly.

WE CAN WIN ALL THREE STATEWIDE OFFICES AND TAKE AWAY DELEGATE SEATS FROM THE DEMS. VOTE TUESDAY NOVEMBER 3 AND VOLUNTEER NOW TIL ELECTION DAY.

The broom isn’t out … yet.