Diary

In response to Erick Erickson - Why palin can win!

First off, let me say I’m ticked at Erick for starting this part of the show at 10 PM. Erick, I get out of the car at 9:55 to go in to work.  Are you not considerate of my feelings and work schedule?

Seriously, all I got to hear was Erick promo’ing the segment and I was upset I wasn’t there to hear his take.  I’m planning to download it later today.  But Erick, since I couldn’t call in and couldn’t listen…let me just give you my reasons why she can win.

Increased familiarity – It was easy for liberals to crowd her out in 2008 with the fear factor. We all know that’s the liberal playbook, just stoke up people’s fears.  Just Google “Matt Damon Sarah Palin” and you’ll see it on full display as Matt Damon belittles her and then starts inferring she’s a religious crazy.  There might have been some play with that 2 years ago but as people have come to know her, the fear aspect of Sarah Palin is subsiding.

Improved messaging – The blood libel web video was attacked viciously by liberals yet the closest thing to controversy they could pull out of it was drumming up a charge of racial insensitvity due to the use of a medival phase.  Yet her video looked extremely Presidential.  She looked in control, spoke clearly and without northwest dialect.  Her message was spot on, direct and she appeared lightyears ahead of where she was 2 years ago.  In short, she invoked confidence. 

Fundraising – No one person on the right has a more ravenous base. Winning the Presidency is as much about money as anything. Sure, Rand Paul, Mike Hukabee and Newt Gingrich have supporters and a fundraising base but the people that support Sarah Palin would sell a kidney to get her elected.  No one in the Republican establishment today can show up and draw a crowd like Sarah.  The proof is in the sales of her book “Going Rogue” which sold 3 million copies in the first 2 months.  Palin will have an excess of money at her disposal.

Female voters – Barack Obama won 56% of the female vote in 2008.  That difference made it nearly impossible for John McCain to overcome.  No conservative candidate can overcome the gender factor with female voters better than a conservative woman.  For some women, elections are about equality.  The Republican Party has allowed the misconception that they are gender unfriendly for far too long.  The desire for some women to vote for Palin, based solely on her gender will be too strong to ignore.

Three to eight debates – In the vice presidential race, Palin was given one shot to debate Joe Biden.  She did extremely well.  But that debate did little to change people’s perceptions about John McCain who seemed frail and unexciting.  Palin will have 3 presidential and numerous primary debates to showcase herself on key issues and put herself infront of the public for review without the media filter editing her words.  She’ll be able to do this with 4 years of preparation, not 6 weeks.

The king maker factor – Pretend for a minute that Sarah Palin loses the primary race.  Would you want to be the candidate for the Republican Party that openly bashed Sarah Palin.  No Republican candidate will win in 2012 if he does not have the support of Palin’s following.  The other conservative candidates will walk on eggshells when it comes to Palin because they realize that she is the king maker.  Given she drops out, it is Palin that will make the next nominee by endorsing him or her.  This was evident when Newt Gingrich spoke last week.  Given every opportunity to throw her under the bus and help himself the worst thing he could bring himself to say was, she needs to be careful what she says and then he went on to praise what a force in politics she is.  Palin will come through the primaries relatively unscathed by her party as criticizing her heavily is political suicide for candidates on the right.

Palin’s biggest drawback is her love/hate relationship with the media and it’s one that time will have to overcome.  If the economy doesn’t severely improve, Gitmo is still not closed and the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan are not seeing any coming resolution, the American people will tire much quicker of media hit pieces than they will of candidate speeches come 2012.