Conservatives will be 54% of “likely” voters this year according to a Gallup release early Thursday (10/8) This is 14 points better than 1994.
Gallup says its first model of 2010 probable voters points to “a highly disproportionate turnout among Republicans and conservatives” Also, “…political independents are aligning themselves with the Republican Party to a degree unprecedented in recent history” according to the respected pollster.
These findings come from work conducted in late September and early this month. (See my “Route To A Rout” post)
Gallup attributes the results to the so-called enthusiasm gap and what it calls the “thought gap” The latter identifies voters who have given “quite a lot” or “some thought” to the coming election. The organization first noted the thought gap in a survey conducted this past August.
Republicans have a 39% to 30% lead on Democrats in Gallup’s likely voter model. When independents are included the GOP leads 57% to 39%. This vastly exceeds the party’s five point lead in 1994 and six point advantage in 2002. Democrats had slight leads in the party plus independent “leaners” in 1998 and 2006.
Gallup calls the current political pattern “extraordinarily” The pollster shows the party id or leaning of likely independent voters couldn’t be determined in only 4% of the sample.
You can check out the entire release at the Gallup web site. It appeared at 4 am (eastern) 10/8. I wonder if the lamestream media will pay more attention to these findings than they did to Gallup’s 10/4 release indicating a very wide GOP lead in likely voters in both average and high turnout scenarios. Certainly the liberal journalistic cabal will have to stop the “change in dynamics” story line soon or look (quite appropriately) like jackasses Nov 3.