A Word on Voter Recounts

(Hyosub Shin/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via AP)

As one is aware, a recount of votes in Georgia has been ordered by state officials.  With Joe Biden allegedly in the lead in that state as of this writing and with razor thin margins in states like Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, it would pay to look at voter recounts.

First, the states have a hodgepodge of laws when it comes to recounts.  Arizona has perhaps some of the most specific guidelines.  According to Ballotpedia, those rules state:

A recount of the vote is required when the canvass of returns in a primary or general election shows that the margin between the two candidates receiving the greatest number of votes for a particular office, or between the number of votes cast for and against initiated or referred measures or proposals to amend the Constitution of Arizona, is less than or equal to the lesser of the following:

1. One-tenth of one per cent of the number of votes cast for both such candidates or upon such measures or proposals.

2. Two hundred votes in the case of an office to be filled by state electors and for which the total number of votes cast is more than twenty-five thousand.

3. Fifty votes in the case of an office to be filled by state electors and for which the total number of votes cast is twenty-five thousand or less.

4. Two hundred votes in the case of an initiated or referred measure or proposal to amend the constitution.

5. Fifty votes in the case of a member of the legislature.

6. Ten votes in the case of an office to be filled by the electors of a city or town or a county or subdivision of a city, town or county.

This is rather specific.  In other states, a voter or candidate or a minimum number of voters must submit an affidavit requesting a recount specifying alleged abnormalities in the vote, then bear the costs of the recount, unless the results were reversed as a result of the recount.  Some states make it harder than other states to have recounts.

According to FairVote, from 2009 to 2019 there have been 5,778 statewide general elections.  During that period, there were 31 recounts.  Of those 31 recounts, only three were successful in reversing the initial result.  Those races were:

  1. The 2004 state of Washington gubernatorial election;
  2. The 2006 state of Vermont state auditor election, and;
  3. The 2008 state of Minnesota US Senate (Al Franken) election.

Further, FairVote notes that the average number of flipped votes as a result of a recount numbers in the hundreds and rarely exceeds 1,000.  However, we have seen instances where the shift in votes has exceeded that low average.  In the 2000 Florida recount, greater than 1,200 votes flipped, but not enough to change the initial result.  There was another recount in the 2018 US Senate race in Florida that saw eventual winner Rick Scott lose 2,567 votes- still not enough to change the initial outcome.

While recounts are being sought or triggered in certain key states by the Trump campaign, this may be a classic Don Quixote case of tilting at windmills.  Regardless of the state, recounts are likely to garner Trump some flipped votes, but not enough to change the outcomes.

Instead, the better strategy is to challenge the validity of ballots cast or discarded.  We already know that in Pennsylvania, misleading “guidelines” from the state’s Secretary of State’s office were interpreted at the county level as “suggestions.”  Even after Justice Alito ordered that late-arriving ballots be segregated, they continued to be counted.  We are aware of the statistical abnormalities cited on these pages by Scott Housnel here, here, here, here, and here that defy explanation or explain an almost impossible shift in voter behavior.

In effect, we are led to believe that, for example, in Pennsylvania that although the GOP held a huge advantage in people switching party affiliation from Democrat to Republican that these new Republican voters voted en masse for Joe Biden.  In some instances, we are led to believe that voter turnout approximated 90% in some areas which would be beyond the bounds of belief considering voter turnout has exceeded a lowly 60% only twice since 1968.

Let us look at just one county in Pennsylvania- Montgomery.  In 2020, according to the latest counts, over 501,000 votes were cast with Trump garnering almost 183,000 and Biden 313,500 .  In 2016, 438,000 votes were cast with Trump garnering 162,000 to Clinton’s 256,000.  That means voter turnout increased 14.4 %.  Trump’s raw vote total increased 13% while Biden’s vote raw vote total increased a whopping 22.4%.  Yet, the county’s population only increased 3% over a ten-year period.  One has to ask where all these votes for Biden came from?  One can understand a small 21,000 bump for Trump, but 57,500 for Biden over Clinton?

The problem in Pennsylvania is not Philadelphia per se which created its own set of problems, but the collar counties surrounding that city.  Hence, in the GOP/Trump challenges to results in the key states that hold the outcome of this election in the balance, they must be surgical in precision.  At the very least, there is an Equal Protection argument here as the Pennsylvania Fourth Congressional District race illustrates (although the pending lawsuit is unlikely to overcome the final result).

There, county officials treated ballots differently.  The Fourth District encompasses Berks County and (ironically again Montgomery County).  In Berks county, officials “cured” questionable ballots by contacting voters while this was not done by officials in Montgomery County who instead either discarded or accepted (we don’t know which) questionable ballots.  If this happened in a single Congressional District, where else in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan or elsewhere were the “rules” differentially followed?

The bottom line is that an actual recount will likely not change the bottom line, although it may make the margins a lot closer.  Probability and history dictates this conclusion.  One should also, when recounting Presidential votes, look at the Congressional level votes.  Many of them in Pennsylvania in particular were very close with Republicans in the lead until those mystery ballots appeared after Election Day and were counted.

Hopefully, a recount and full audit of the validity of ballots cast will shed light on the level of fraud perpetrated in the election of 2020.  Faith in the integrity of the process has already been shaken and possibly irreparably harmed.  We know Democrats and the Left will do anything to win and the parrots in the media will carry the water bucket for them.  The question is will the Republicans and the Right roll over and accept the results of a fraudulent election?  If so, they are complicit in the fraud and give it their stealth stamp of approval.  The GOP and conservatives had better fight this to the ugly bitter end.

Should Trump eventually lose this race- and it not over until the fat lady sings- then what happened in 2020 should dog Biden for the next four years (or however long until Harris takes over) much like Russia dogged Trump for the better part of four years.  Let us on the Right start our own #Resistance NOW so that there is never a repeat of 2020!