Diary

Election 2020: Final Fearless Predictions

AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

For those who read the series of articles regarding the election from your’s truly, a heartfelt thanks.  Your comments, especially from those close to the action throughout these great United States added depth to any analysis “up close and personal.”  As stated in earlier articles, I would revisit the races and that is where we are today.  Let’s start with the Senate races:

Republican incumbents who will win reelection or win an open race:  Dan Sullivan (AK), Tom Cotton (AR), Perdue (GA), Isaakson (ID), Ernst (IA), Marshall (KS), McConnell (KY), Cassidy (LA), Hyde-Smith (MS), Daines (MT), Sasse (NE), Tillis (NC), Inhofe (OK), Graham (SC), Rounds (SD), Hagerty (TN), Cornyn (TX), Moore-Capito (WV), and Lummis (WY).

Democrat incumbents who will win reelection or win an open race:  Coons (DE), Durbin (IL), Markey (MA), Smith (MN), Shaheen (NH), Booker (NJ), Lujan (NM), Merkeley (OR), Reed (RI), and Warner (VA).

Democrats who will lose:  Jones (AL), Peters (MI)

Republicans who will lose: McSally (AZ), Gardner (CO)

The Wild Card: Susan Collins (ME)

Hence, either McConnell maintains his 53-47 advantage, or it is 52-48.  Ironically, hope I’m wrong and Collins or Gardner/McSally wins because a 52-48 advantage only strengthens the hands of squishes like Romney and Murkowski.

In US House races, I predicted the GOP will capture that chamber with a narrow majority.  I stand by that summation regardless of Congressional approval ratings predicting outcomes.

In the Presidential race:

President Trump will be reelected with no less than 305 electoral votes.  In the key swing states, he will win Arizona, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Pennsylvania.  There will be a surprise victory in Minnesota and he may even pull a single electoral vote out of Maine.  However, the margins of victory will be close in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan so there will be post-election drama and litigation.  That leaves 56 electoral votes on the table which would drop both candidates below the 270 minimum needed unless there is a surprise elsewhere.  This writer can find none other than possibly New Mexico and/or New Hampshire, but there are not enough electoral votes between them (9) to bring the total to 270.

Folks, we are not going to know who the next President is until after the actual election- at a minimum, at least three-five days.  However, the odds are in Trump’s favor at this point.

Let the protests begin.