Diary

A Look at the 2020 Election: Wisconsin

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Wisconsin is the last of the big three that also included Michigan and Pennsylvania that may prove key to Trump’s electoral chances in 2020.  Most political pundits at this point believe that Wisconsin may be the toughest for a Democrat to win.  Demographically, it has the highest percentage of white, blue collar workers and the lowest percentage of minority voters.  Both these factors work to Trump’s advantage.  Naturally, the drift of suburban Republicans to “independent” status and the increased GOP advantages in the rural areas also is evident in Wisconsin.

Although few expect a Democrat to win the WOW counties surrounding Milwaukee- Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington- the level of enthusiasm for Trump could prove key.  These three counties serve as a GOP counterweight to Democratic strongholds in Milwaukee and Madison.  Republicans seem ready and willing for the political fight of their lives.  They have been organizing relentlessly since 2017.

Further, what the GOP has going for them most are the Democrats.  Many believe that the drift of the Democrats to the far Left have only increased Trump support in Wisconsin.  They may have a point.

In the 2020 presidential primaries held in April, turnout was greater among Democrats and Bernie Sanders had officially dropped out of the race about a week before- too late to remove his or Elizabeth Warren’s name from the ballot.  In fact, there were almost 900,000 votes cast among Democrats and about 630,000 in the Republican primary race.  However, despite being the virtual last man standing, Biden garnered only 64% of the vote.  In fact, his vote total was less than that for Trump…in an uncontested race.  This proves one thing: enthusiasm is greater for Trump among Republicans in Wisconsin than for Biden among Democrats in the state.  

The message is obvious: paint the Democrats as too far Left even for Wisconsin’s sometimes dalliance with radicalism.  As former governor Scott Walker said: “You’ve got candidates talking about getting rid of cows.  That’s kind of funny anywhere, but in Wisconsin messing with cows is not funny business.  We’ve got an $80 billion agriculture industry and about half of that is dairy.”

Meanwhile, Biden has no real message.  His only real chance is to hold onto the Clinton performance in Milwaukee and Dane (Madison) Counties, or improve upon them, and hold down the Trump numbers in the WOW counties.  

Another thing going against Biden in Wisconsin is the impeachment fiasco.  According to Marquette University polling at the time, only 40% of Wisconsin voters supported it.  The political infrastructure built by the Trump team in 2016 was never dismantled.  It should also be noted that in the 2016 counties won by Clinton in 2016 (12 in all), only three were slam dunks and in one of them (Menominee), there were only 1,300 votes cast.  

Also playing to the advantage of Trump is the Seventh District special election to replace Republican Sean Duffy who retired for personal reasons.  Over $2.2 million was spent to keep this district in GOP hands when Tom Tiffany won by 15 points over his Democrat opponent.  This is a huge district that supported Trump in 2016 and Romney in 2012 other than three low-population counties.

Finally, during the summer, polls out of Wisconsin showed Trump in a dire position and trailing by a little more than 3 points going into August.  Needless to say, this was/is one of the states with the most polls in the country.  Despite what could be considered the “low point” of Trump’s tenure, he really did not lose that much ground to Biden indicating the support in Wisconsin is not wavering for Trump.

There is one open GOP-held seat in 2020- the Fifth District- currently held by Jim Sensenbrenner.  However, this is relatively safe GOP territory and the current 5-3 advantage held by the Republicans should hold in 2020.

Hence, this writer believes Trump will win Wisconsin and the current delegation with another Republican in the 5th District will prevail 5-3.

Running totals  

Trump clinches the Presidency 270-239 as Biden, taking the advice of Hillary Clinton, refuses to concede.  Nancy Pelosi is now doing shots of tequila with beer chasers (designer beer and tequila, of course) while Chuckie Schumer, having already lost the Senate, joins her to only dream of “what coulda been.”  The Squad screeches something, but no one really listens.  House total: 206-202 for the GOP, and Senate 53-45 for the GOP.

 

Next: Florida