Diary

A Look at the 2020 Election: The Deep South (Minus Georgia)

In this installment, we look at six Southern states.

Arkansas

Things are so bad for the Democrats here that Tom Cotton is running unopposed for his Senate seat.  All four Congressional districts are represented by Republicans and will stay that way.  And Trump will win also.  There’s just not too much to say here.

Louisiana

Louisiana is an interesting case since Election Day is a jungle primary. I’m not going to explain a “jungle primary” because Redstate readers are intelligent.  Bill Cassidy is up for reelection to the Senate for the GOP and should win and there should be no change in the House partisan make up.  Two caveats: with eight people on the Senate ballot, the possibility of a runoff exists potentially delaying the final composition of the Senate until December 5th.  Either way, Cassidy wins.  The Sixth District is an open GOP-held seat with seven candidates in the mix.  It is doubtful this seat will flip, but a runoff is likely.  No doubts, Trump wins this state.

Louisiana wants to amend their state constitution stating there is no right to an abortion or funding for abortions.  Expect the fine folks at Lawfare, Planned Parenthood, NARAL, Emily’s List, and the ACLU to challenge this November 4th if it passes.  They’re preparing the briefs already.

Mississippi

There is little drama here also.  Cindy Hyde-Smith, the GOP incumbent Senator, faces Mike Espy for the Democrats.  Wait…didn’t she just defeat Espy?  In fact, Espy forced her into a runoff in a special election after she was appointed to replace the retiring Thad Cochran.  In the runoff, she beat Espy by 7 points.

Wait…is the same Mike Espy who had to resign as Clinton’s Agriculture Secretary amid charges of bribery?  Yep- one and the same. As a Senator, Hyde-Smith has burnished her conservative credentials and there should be no runoff this time around and she will hopefully once and for all put a stake in the political heart of Mike Espy.  He will fight and he is a prolific fundraiser with deep pockets himself, but this writer just does not see him prevailing.  If there is a surprise, then it is going to be a long night for the GOP nationally.  An easy Trump win here, also.

Mississippi voters will be asked to approve medical marijuana while also being asked to change their state flag since the Confederate battle flag MUST be placed in the memory hole.

South Carolina

Democrats believe they have the perfect foil for incumbent GOP Senator Lindsey Graham in Jaime Harrison, a young, somewhat charismatic African-American.  A lot of out-of-state money is flowing into his coffers thus far and a lot of outside spending opposing him.

Much has been made in the liberal press about Harrison’s fundraising prowess.  Unfortunately for Harrison, dollar bills do not vote.  Additionally, Harrison lacks something Graham has in his favor: Trump at the top of the ticket.  South Carolina politics can be brutal and Graham may have to resort to those brutal tactics.  

A lot of negativity has been directed at Lindsey Graham on these pages, most of it justified.  I still do not think he has exorcised the ghost of John McCain from his psyche.  Still, he is good for some righteous indignation at times.  Unfortunately, most of what we get from Graham is some tough talk.  

It should also be mentioned that Harrison’s armor was tarnished when it became known that some of his staffers posted anti-Semitic and homophobic comments on social media.  What a shock!  You mean there are anti-Semitic and homophobic Democrats?

There is one Congressional race of interest in the First District.  In 2018, Democrats managed to win the seat over Katie Arrington who managed to unseat Mark Sanford in the GOP primary who managed to make his way off the Appalachian Trail.  Democrat Joe Cunningham faces Nancy Mace this year.  If Cunningham prevails, it will be a squeaker, but this writer is predicting a Mace victory at this point.

And did I mention that Trump takes this state?

Alabama

Now that Jeff Sessions has been dispatched by Tommy Tuberville as the challenger to Democrat senator Doug Jones, the Democrat incumbent can pack his bags, break his DC lease, and head on back to Alabama.  Tuberville had to endure a primary and runoff while Jones sat back and raised funds.  However, things are just not in the cards for a Jones victory in 2020 with Trump at the top of the ticket.  The Jones victory over Roy Moore previously was a fluke of the circumstances particular to that race.  Incidentally, whatever happened to the accusations against Moore?

The House delegation currently favors the GOP 6-1 and that is unlikely to change come Election Day.  Bradley Byrne vacated the First District to run in the GOP Senatorial primary, while Martha Roby is retiring in the Second District.  These are fairly stable Republican districts.  And it goes without saying- Trump easily takes Alabama.

Running Totals To Date

Eleven states down and 39 to go, plus DC. After this entry, Trump sweeps the South and leads in the electoral vote count 42-29.  Democrats still lead in House 25-24.  However, the Senate is tied 11-11 (like the way I planned this?).

Next

Things will get worse as we head to the far West and the great Northwest (Hawaii, Alaska, Washington and Oregon).