Democrats, 2020 and the Oddsmakers

Now that Biden is officially in and a slew of others (to be discussed later) bringing the number of Democrats vying for the 2020 nomination to something near 1,000, the oddsmakers are weighing in.  Here are the top ten in reverse order:

#10. Amy Klobuchar (formerly #6)  35:1

The Minnesota senator is dropping like a meteor through the atmosphere.  A lack of exposure in a crowded field coupled with bad exposure when she does get attention is souring the oddsmakers.

#9. Andrew Yang (formerly #9)  31:1

Promising people $1,000 a month (of their own money) keeps this unconventional candidate afloat.  This guy is considering hologram appearances at campaign rallies, which should be interesting.  This just illustrates how bizarre the field truly is.

#8. Corey Booker (formerly #8)  30:1

Gaining no traction whatsoever, Booker seems to be coasting in neutral.  This writer does not see him advancing much higher unless something drastic happens on the campaign trail.

#7. Tulsi Gabbard (formerly #10)  28:1

They saw something in Gabbard since April even if she has been relatively silent on the campaign trail.  Her main cause is foreign policy and perhaps a Trump blunder in this area could provide an opening.  Last time out, it was Gillibrand blocking Booker from rising.  This time, its another, better looking woman doing that.

#6. Robert O’Rourke (formerly #4)  13:1

He hovered in the top 5 for months, but seems to be sinking as the polls indicate.  The Great Hope of the Democrats is coming off as a liability likely to be eaten alive by Trump on the campaign trail if it ever came to that.  Apparently, bookies see the same thing.  However, it would take something dramatic to cause a steeper fall given the gap between Gabbard/Booker and he.

#5. Elizabeth Warren (formerly #7)  11:1

O’Rourke’s loss is Warren’s gain.  Additionally, she seems to be rising in the polls and for someone who looked dead in the water 2-3 months ago, she’s gaining some traction.  Don’t count her out just yet.

#4. Pete Buttigieg (formerly #5)  7:1

This is indicative of how weird things are right now: an innocuous mayor from an innocuous Midwestern city who just happens to be gay sits in the top 5.

#3. Kamala Harris (formerly #2)  5:1

Through all the candidates, this boils down to a three horse race right now.  Despite the sniping about who is going to be the running mate of who, you’re likely looking at a Biden-Harris ticket come 2020.  Face it: she checks the demographic boxes and she’s lefty-crazy.  That is, unless…

#2. Bernie Sanders (formerly #1)  4:1

Bernie fans are alive and well.  He and Biden are arguing over who is more progressive than the other on a variety of issues.  I’d take Sanders in that battle.  The fight between Biden and Sanders will go down to the wire with Bernie likely being on the outside…again.  So the next question becomes how does dissing Bernie once again sit with the faithful come Election Day?

#1. Joe Biden (formerly #3)  2:1

Hardly a surprise, all it took was an official announcement and some creepy hair smelling to convince the oddsmakers.  And the polls seem to indicate the same.  Ironic, eh?  The party of identity politics have as their face two old white guys.

And what did oddsmakers think of the other new entrants?  Not much!  Seth Moulton stands at 135:1 and the others with odds greater than 100:1.  The only exception is Steve Bullock at 70:1.  Finally, Kirsten Gillibrand dropped out of the top 10 to #12.  And just to show how bad a candidate she is, Hillary Clinton sits at #11 and Gillibrand ekes by John Hicklenhooper by inches for that coveted #12 spot.

Tomorrow: What oddsmakers think of GOP candidates IF Trump did not run, or see you in 2024?