Diary

The Electoral Map: New Jersey

New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes will go to Hillary Clinton by about 9-12 points.  The fact is that Donald Trump is not that well-like in the state.  Part of it is attributable to the fact that his key lackey and water boy, Chris Christie, is also disliked in the state.

With no Senatorial race, there are three- possibly four- Congressional races of interest.  In the Second, Republican Frank LoBiondo represents a Democratic district.  He’s been in office since 1984 and what keeps getting him being reelected is pork plain and simple.  I know; I live in this district.  In a wave year, if it turns out that way for Clinton, then LoBiondo may be a casualty.  However, this writer finds that scenario unlikely given he has a weak opponent.

The Democrats with a better candidate may have made a play for the Third District, but they were left with their D-list candidate and Tom MacArthur, the GOP incumbent, should win this race.  If not, the GOP is in for a long night in down ballot races.

Democrats are making a major play for Scott Garrett’s seat- the Republican incumbent- in the Fifth District.  This district lies in the northern part of the state along the Pennsylvania and New York borders and although considered “urban,” has its fair share of rural areas.  What has Democrats so excited is Garrett’s refusal to pay money to the RSCC stating that they were actively recruiting homosexuals.  They have painted him as a radical anti-homosexual bigot.  Many of his Wall Street backers have left him and are supporting his Democratic opponent, Josh Gottheimer.

Perhaps this would be a problem in another year, but given the anti-Wall Street rhetoric, distancing oneself from Wall Street may be a good strategy.  Except in some of the bigger cities in the district one encounters as you near New York City, LGBT issues may play a role.  If anything, it may be a close call for Garrett…or maybe he will lose.

The only other race of interest and one under the radar is the 11th District represented by Republican Rodney Freylinghuysen.  What puts this race on my radar is the unusually high Democratic turnout in the June primary.  Only 9,000 less Democrats turned out for a competitive primary than GOP voters in a competitive primary.  This is a north central legislative district that went for Obama in 2012.

New Jersey is a blue state yet the Congressional district is evenly split 6-6.  It would seem probable that in a state where Clinton will likely carry it by 9-12 points, there will be at least one GOP casualty.  The only question is which district will flip.  Everyone’s eyes in Jersey are on the 5th, but I would keep an eye on the 11th also.

After 2 days of analysis, Hillary Clinton leads the electoral vote count 43-0 with her picking up New Jersey’s 14 votes.  The Senate remains in GOP control 54-46, but we lose another seat in the House making the GOP advantage 245-190.