From the Presidential standpoint, there is no drama here in this area, and none on the Senatorial level either. Simply speaking, despite Donald Trump’s assertions of broadening the electoral map and his misguided belief that Connecticut was possibly in play, all 29 electoral votes among these states will go to Hillary Clinton.
Instead, the action will be at the state and Congressional seat level. Looking at the states involved in alphabetical order:
It is safe to say that incumbent Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal will win reelection rather easily. All five of the state’s congressional districts are currently represented by Democratic incumbents and all five look headed to equally easy victories. If there is any chance for a Republican upset, it would be in the Fifth District but that is on the outer fringes of probability. Thus, all seven electoral votes go to Hillary Clinton winning the state by about 11 points with no Republican pick-ups.
The Congressional districts are split evenly with Chillie Pingree representing the First for the Democrats and Bruce Poliquin representing the 2nd District for the GOP. Poliquin won this seat in 2014 as part of the Republican wave in an open race after Democrat Mike Michaud opted for a gubernatorial run. Then, he faced Emily Cain and she is back for a rematch having lost in 2014 by 5 percentage points. In 2014, independent candidate Blaine Richardson siphoned off 10.6% of the total point and was the first independent candidate to run in Maine since 2006. There are no independent candidates on the 2nd Congressional District ballot this year AND this is a presidential election year in a state that favors Hillary Clinton. Despite Poliquin’s victory in 2014, Obama carried this district. Hence, one expects Emily Cain to take this seat in the House and Clinton to take the 4 electoral votes with a comparatively close 7-9 point victory.
This is a very blue state and Clinton will easily carry it by about 20 points. Furthermore, all nine Congressional districts are held by Democrats and no one expects anything to change as none of the races are really competitive. Give Clinton the 11 electoral votes and expect all nine Democrats to return to the House.
Another decidedly blue state that will easily go for Clinton by somewhere near 12-15 points. Both Congressional districts are held by Democrats and they will easily glide to victory. Perhaps the only good thing one can say about Rhode Island is that come the 2020 census, they will be down to only one House seat.
And finally Vermont- the Socialist Republic of Vermont…home of Bernie Sanders and Pat Leahy…and a failed single-payer health care experiment that fell apart a lot quicker than it was developed. In the interim, it basically cost the Governor his job as he decided not to run for another term. First, Leahy will win reelection and we can safely say that their lone member of the House will win since the GOP does not even have an opponent. Instead, we need to look at the Governor’s race where Republican Phil Scott will oppose Democrat Sue Minter. It seems strange that a Republican would have a shot here, but Phil Scott does, albeit an outside chance. However, given the strong propensity of the state to vote for Clinton- she should win by at least 25 points here- expect her coat tails to extend to the gubernatorial race. This is one state where Trump at the top of the ticket definitely hurts the GOP chances of picking up a Governor’s office since the situation was ripe for a party change.
So at the end of this analysis, we have Clinton with 29 electoral votes and Trump being shut out. Republicans lose one House seat (ME-02). The GOP still leads in the House 246-189. The Senate remains 54-46 in favor of the GOP.
Next: New Jersey