Diary

The Battle For the House in 2016, Part 2- June Happenings

 

Continued from yesterday:

Nevada

In the closely watched 3rd District, the crowded GOP field turned out Danny Tarkanian over favored Michael Roberson who was backed by the Nevada GOP and Governor Brian Sandoval.  This is the open seat being vacated by Senatorial aspirant Joe Heck.  Jaclyn Rosen won the Democratic primary .  Most believed the GOP’s chances would have been better with Roberson as the GOP’s candidate, but Tarkanian’s attacks Roberson’s part in tax increases seemed to hurt him among Republican voters.  This should be an interesting race.

In the 4th, Ruben Kiheun won the Democratic primary and will face Republican freshman incumbent Crescent Hardy in the fall.  Kihuen had the backing of most of the Nevada Democratic powers that be.  He defeated Lucy Flores who was backed by Bernie Sanders, and Susie Lee.  Speaking of Flores, the Democrats keep putting forth their rendition of the Latina abortion Barbie, but she just keeps losing races.

New Jersey

In the 2nd District, Frank LoBiondo is the Republican incumbent.  He will face Democrat David Cole in the fall.  This is an Obama district and the fact that Cole won amidst heavy Democratic turnout may turn this into a sleeper race.  This is the district that represents Atlantic City, a city abandoned by Donald Trump.  The Democrats should have targeted the 3rd but couldn’t find a good candidate so they’re stuck with some dude type of opponent.  In the 11th, GOP incumbent Rodney Frehlinghuysen should be safe but for the fact that GOP turnout matched Democratic turnout and he will face Joe Wenzel come November.  Could Trump put this seat in jeopardy for the GOP?

New York

As of the writing of this article, GOP incumbent in the 1st Lee Zeldin does not know who his opponent will be as 46 votes separate Anna Throne Holst and Dave Callone in a race to be decided by absentee ballots one would figure.  Throne-Holst is perceived as someone difficult to get along with which may explain Callone’s performance.  In the open Democratic Third, Tom Suozzi defeated Steve Stern (who was favored by the DCCC) and will take on Republican Jack Martins.

In the 18th, Republican Phil Oliva will take on Democratic incumbent Sean Maloney.  In the open GOP held seat to succeed Chris Gibson will be John Faso, the former GOP minority leader of the state assembly, against a person with one of the best names running this year (but not better than Wana Dube in Missouri) Zephyr Teachout.

The race in the 22nd was one of the most watched on the 28th to replace outgoing GOP incumbent Richard Hanna (and good riddance).  The GOP establishment wanted Steve Wells, but it will be the decidedly more conservative Claudia Tenney for the Republicans against Kim Myers.

Finally, in the 24th, another Bernie Sanders endorsee bites the dust as Eric Kingston was defeated by former Gillibrand staffer Colleen Deacon who will face the endangered GOP incumbent Joe Katko.

North Carolina

In the 2nd District, which was altered after court-ordered redistricting, George Holding who moved over from the 13th, defeated Renee Ellmers in the GOP primary.  The fact is that Holding is considerably more reliably conservative and the new district lines in the 2nd clearly favored him.  Ellmers managed to earn the ire of many conservatives over her votes on the Import-Export Bank and abortion.  For this writer, good riddance!

In the 3rd, Walter Jones had no problem whatsoever dispatching his opposition in the GOP primary.  Perhaps this will teach Taylor Griffin to just go away now!  And in the technically open 13th District (Holding moved to the 2nd), Ted Budd emerged the GOP victor in an extremely crowded primary and will face some guy named Bruce Davis for the Democrats.  Speaking of Democrats, less than 700 votes separated the 1st and 3rd place finishers in the 13th’s primary.

Oklahoma

All five Republican incumbent Congressmen faced primary opposition this year.  And all five incumbents won their primaries and look like safe bets to win in November.

South Carolina

All incumbents won their primaries including Appalachian Trail hiker Mark Sanford in the 2nd District.  He was challenged by fellow Republican Jenny Horne who made an impassioned speech supporting taking down the Confederate flag at the Capitol.  Boo hoo… she lost.

Virginia

The only big news out of the Old Dominion is that Randy Forbes, who jumped into this district when court-ordered redistricting made his old district less favorable to Republicans, lost his primary bid in his newly adopted 2nd District.  Hence, Randy Forbes will be returning to private life in Virginia come January 2017.

Updated ratings- worst case scenario= GOP 14 seat loss.

REPUBLICAN SEATS
Probably Safe Keep Close Eye On Battleground
J. Denham CA-10 Mike Coffman CO-06 Martha McSally AZ-01
Fred Upton MI-06 (D. Webster- FL-10) OPEN Steven Knight CA-23
Tim Wahlberg MI-07 David Young IA-03 Dave Jolly- FL-13
Frank LoBiondo NJ-02 (Tim Benischek- MI-01) OPEN Carlos Curbelo FL-26
Scott Garrett NJ-05 (Candice Miller MI-10) OPEN Bob Dold IL-10
(Bob Hurt VA-05) OPEN Erik Paulsen MN-03 Mike Bost IL-12
Alex Mooney WV-02 Tom MacArthur NJ-03 Rod Blum IA-01
Elise Stefanik NY-21 Bruce Poliquin ME-02
(Richard Hanna NY-22) OPEN Dave Trott MI-11
(George Holding NC-13) OPEN (John Kline- MN-02) OPEN
Ryan Costello PA-06 (Joe Heck NV-03) OPEN
Bill Hurd TX-23 Frank Guinta NH-01
(Randy Forbes VA-04) OPEN Lee Zeldin NY-01
Barbara Comstock VA-10 (Chris Gibson NY-19) OPEN
Dave Reichert WA-08 Joe Katko NY-24
(John Fitzpatrick PA-08) OPEN
(Scott Rigell VA-02) OPEN
(Reid Ribble WI-08) OPEN
DEMOCRATIC SEATS
Probably Safe Keep close eye on Battleground
John Garamendi CA-03 Ami Bera CA-07 (Ann Kirkpatrick AZ-01) OPEN
Mark Takano CA-41 (Lois Capps CA-24) OPEN Krysten Sinema AZ-09
Elizabeth Esty CT-05 Pete Aguilar CA-31 (Loretta Sanchez CA-46) OPEN
(Alan Grayson FL-09) OPEN Raul Ruiz CA-36 (Gwen Graham FL-02) OPEN
(Tammy Duckworth IL-08) OPEN Scott Peters CA-52 Colin Peterson MN-07
Bill Foster IL-11 (Scott Murphy FL-18) OPEN Brad Ashford NE-02
John Delaney MD-06 Tim Walz MN-01 Sean Maloney NY-18
(Steve Israel NY-03) OPEN Rick Nolan MN-08
(Ruben Hinojosa TX-15) OPEN