Diary

The Battle for the House in 2016- April News, Part 2

Continuing from yesterday:

MN-03:  The Democrats believe they have their woman in to run against incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen- state senator Terri Bonoff.  She ran here before, but lost the Democratic primary in 2008.  Since 2008, Paulsen has never garnered less than 58% of the vote in the general election.

NV-04:  Lucy Flores, the Democratic Party’s abortion Barbie in Nevada is seeking this seat against Republican incumbent Crescent Hardy.  However, she always had a hard time raising money as her 2014 Lt. Governor’s race showed.  Enter Bernie Sanders who sent out an e-mail to his massive mailing list soliciting donations for Flores.  As a result, she hauled in $428,000.

NH-01:  Businessman Rich Ashooh has entered the GOP primary to take on incumbent Frank Guinta and Pam Tucker who is also challenging Guinta.  The primary is not until September 13th.  A three-way race makes the possibility of Guinta surviving a primary fight more likely.

Not that the Democrats don’t have their own set of problems.  Shawn O’Connor is running against Carol Shea-Porter for the right to be the Democratic candidate in November.  O’Connor has accused his opponent of running a whisper campaign suggesting he is a domestic abuser.  Supposedly, another state senator- David Pierce- claims the Shea-Porter camp suggested this attack except that Pierce has endorsed O’Connor.  He is demanding an apology and if none is forthcoming has promised to sue Shea-Porter for defamation.

NJ-09:  Ex-Paterson Mayor Jeff Jones was going to challenge incumbent Democrat Bill Pascrell in the June 7th primary.  The two have a long and acrimonious relationship.  However, Pascrell allies challenged Jones’ petition signatures forcing Jones to withdraw from the race.  Previously, he left open the option of running as an independent and he still may.

PA-06:  Of course the Pennsylvania primary is behind us, but Lindy Li showed true beginner’s inexperience when she was forced to drop out before a single vote was cast.  Due to a challenge by her Democratic primary opponent, Mike Parrish, it was discovered that many signatures she obtained on petitions to get on the ballot had been stamped by a notary without the notary’s signature.  That made those signatures invalid.  Li complained that most of her campaign funds were expended fighting the losing battle.  At age 25, some expect to see her in the future.

The following entries regard Tennessee whose filing deadline passed in April:

TN-04:  The ethically challenged Republican incumbent Scott DesJarlais survived a primary scare in 2014 and went on to re-election (he won the primary by 38 votes).  This year, former Mitt Romney aid Grant Starrett is hoping to finish him off.  At age 28 and a recent move to Tennessee from his California law school, DesJarlais is wasting no time bringing up this fact that Starrett is an outsider.  Still, his fundraising is impressive and he starts with a cool half-million dollar edge over the incumbent.

TN-06: There was a surprise last-minute challenge against Republican incumbent Marsha Blackburn when ex-state representative Joe Carr decided to run in the primary.  Carr last challenged Senator Lamar Alexander in 2014 primary.  In his favor, he did not raise much in that race, nor did he receive much outside help.  Still, he lost that primary against Alexander by only a 50-41 margin which isn’t bad given his shortcomings against an incumbent Senator.  Carr also did very well in the Nashville area and actually carried the 6th in his bid against Alexander.  Although Blackburn is considered somewhat conservative, she is also very close to the GOP House leadership and in this the year of the anti-incumbent anything is possible.

WA-08:  This district was hotly contested a decade ago, but redistricting has solidified the GOP strength in this area.  In 2012, Bellevue was swapped out for the more rural Wenatchee and Ellensburg.  Hence, Democrats today have not made ousting GOP incumbent Dave Reichert a priority.  Enter 71-year-old Tony Ventrella, a former sports anchor for two Seattle affiliates.  Before they get their hopes up, it sounds more like he’s simply doing this for the hell of it as he has made his intention known that fundraising will not be a priority.

WI-07:  Democrats believe they have an outside shot in this district held by Republican Sean Duffy.  Perhaps the most notable is Marathon County board supervisor Joel Lewis.  About 20% of the Seventh is based in Marathon giving Lewis some name recognition off the bat.

Updated race ratings indicate a net loss of 12 seats in the House in 2016 for the Republican Party.

REPUBLICAN SEATS
Probably Safe Keep Close Eye On Battleground
F. Hill- AR02 J. Coffman- CO06 M. McSally- AZ02
J. Denham-CA10 D. Young- IA03 S. Knight- CA25
(R. DeSantis-FL06) OPEN (D. Benischek- MI01) OPEN (D. Jolly- FL13) OPEN
R. Davis- IL13 M. Bishop- MI08 C. Curbelo- FL26
F. Upton- MI06 (C. Miller MI-10) OPEN B. Dold- IL10
T. Wahlberg-MI07 E.Paulsen- MN03 M. Bost- IL12
F. LoBiondo- NJ02 E. Stefanik- NY21 R. Blum- IA01
T. McArthur- NJ03 (R. Hanna- NY-22) OPEN B. Poliquin- ME02
S. Garrett- NJ05 (G. Holding- NC13) OPEN D. Trott- MI11
A. Mooney- WV02 R. Costello- PA06 (R. Kline MN-02) OPEN
W. Hurd- TX23 (J. Heck- NV03) OPEN
(S. Rigell- VA02) OPEN F. Guinta- NH-02
(R. Forbes- VA04) OPEN L. Zeldin- NY01
(R. Hurt- VA05) OPEN (C. Gibson- NY19) OPEN
B. Comstock- VA10 J. Katko- NY24
(R. Ribble- WI08) OPEN (M. Fitzpatrick- PA08) OPEN
DEMOCRATIC SEATS
Probably Safe Keep close eye on Battleground
R. Grijalva- AZ03 (L. Capps- CA24) OPEN (A. Kirkpatrick- AZ01) OPEN
J. Garamendi- CA03 R. Ruiz- CA36 K. Sinema- AZ09
A. Bera-CA07 S. Peters- CA-52 (L. Sanchez- CA46) OPEN
J. Costa- CA16 (S. Murphy- FL18) OPEN (G. Graham- FL02) OPEN
M. Takano- CA41 T. Walz- MN02 C. Peterssen- MN07
E. Perlmutter- CO07 R. Nolan- MN-08 B. Ashford- NE02
E. Esty- CT05 P. Aguilar- CA31 S. Maloney- NY18
(M. Grayson- FL09) OPEN J. Delaney- MD06
(T. Duckworth- IL08) OPEN
B. Foster- IL11
D. Loebsack- IA02
(S. Israel- NY-03) OPEN
K.Schrader- OR05
(R. Hinojosa- TX15) OPEN