Diary

What Is At Stake Tomorrow (and Saturday)

Tomorrow, voters in four states go to the polls with 150 delegates up for grabs, only five less than what was available Saturday.  Of course, the granddaddy of them all is Michigan followed by Mississippi.

Hawaii:

  • Total delegates available- 19
  • Type of voting-  caucus
  • At large (+RNC) delegates available- 13
  • How at large delegates allocated- proportionately based on statewide vote
  • Congressional district delegates available- 6
  • How CD delegates allocated- proportionately based on vote within the District
  • What the polls reveal- Nothing; there are none
  • What to expect: It is difficult without any polling data, but Hawaii is not exactly a major GOP stronghold.  To the extent that it is, it is certainly more on the moderate side.  One would expect John Kasich to do well here, if they even know who he is.

Idaho:

  • Total delegates available- 32
  • Type of voting-  primary
  • At large (+RNC) delegates available- 26
  • How at large delegates are allocated- proportionately based on statewide vote
  • Threshold- YES, must get get 20% of the vote statewide to gain any delegates
  • Congressional district delegates available- 6
  • How CD delegates are allocated- proportionately based on statewide vote (for all intents and purposes, all 32 delegates are allocated proportionately based on statewide vote)
  • Threshold- YES, 20% based on statewide vote
  • Special note:  If any candidate gets 50% of the vote statewide, they automatically get all 32 delegates
  • What the polls tell us: Absolutely nothing; there are none
  • Analysis: This would look like a good state for Ted Cruz to pick up a chunk of delegates and eat into the Trump advantage.  Expect them to finish 1-2 here with Rubio a very distant third.

Michigan:

  • Total delegates available- 59
  • Type of voting: Primary
  • At large delegates (+RNC) available- 17
  • How at large delegates allocated- proportionately based on statewide vote
  • Threshold- YES, must get 15% of the vote statewide to win any delegates
  • Congressional district delegates available- 42
  • How CD delegates are allocated- proportionately based on statewide vote (hence, basically all delegates are allocated proportionately based on statewide vote)
  • Threshold- YES, must receive 15% of the vote statewide
  • SPECIAL NOTE: If any candidate reaches 50% of the vote statewide, they get all 59 delegates
  • What the polls tell us:  Based on polls since 2/1/16, then Trump wins this primary and the bulk of the delegates with Kasich getting some also.  However, no one should get to 50% statewide precluding the winner-take-all scenario.
  • Analysis: Over the past month, Rubio has been running fourth here in the polls and has fallen behind Kasich.  Kasich is spending time here in the hopes of at least finishing second although it would be hard to beat Trump given his lead.  Denial of delegates to Trump helps in the overall picture, but this was once seen as fertile ground for the Rubio campaign.  In reality, it may be the actual end of his campaign if he fails to get many delegates.

Mississippi:

  • Total delegates available- 40
  • Type of voting- Primary
  • At large (+RNC) delegates available- 28
  • How at large delegates are allocated- Proportionately based on the statewide vote
  • Threshold- YES, candidate must get 15% of the statewide vote to get any delegates
  • Congressional district delegates available- 12
  • How CD delegates are allocated- Based on vote totals within the district with the winner getting 2 delegates and the runner-up getting one delegate (with no threshold) UNLESS any candidate gets greater than 50% of the vote within the district in which case they get all three delegates from that district
  • Threshold- NONE within the Congressional district
  • What the polls tell us:  Trump is in first place, but the polls in Mississippi largely mirrored those in neighboring Louisiana and Cruz made it a lot closer
  • Reliability of polls- NONE since there is only one this year and two overall
  • Analysis- One would expect Trump to pull out a victory here.  In the single poll from 2016, Cruz and Rubio are basically tied at a very distant second.  The same dynamics as Louisiana are likely here, although I suspect Rubio to pull a minimal number of delegates given the 15% threshold (it was 20% in Louisiana and Rubio pulled 11.2%).  This writer believes that although Trump will likely win, it will be a lot closer than polls indicate with Cruz coming a close second.

District of Columbia:  DC will go on Saturday 3/12/16.

  • Total delegates available- 19
  • Type of voting- Convention
  • At large delegates available- all 19
  • How delegates are allocated- proportionately based on vote
  • Threshold- YES, must get 15% of the vote to receive any delegates
  • What the polls tell us- Nothing since there are none
  • Analysis- It is hard to see Trump or Cruz emerging with any delegates from the convention, although with four candidates it may be easier to reach the 15% threshold.  Since DC does not have the 50% threshold for a winner-take-all scenario, with Kasich in the race, Rubio cannot pull a Puerto Rico and pick up 19 delegates.