Diary

What's At Stake Today and Tomorrow

As all eyes are on the upcoming March 15th primaries (the real Super Tuesday, by the way), it is best to understand what is at stake today and tomorrow as four states will hold caucuses and Puerto Rico will hold a primary.  Between them, 178 delegates are up for grabs this weekend.  So, it is best to look at each one.

Kansas:

Kansas will hold closed caucuses today with 40 delegates available.  The following shows how those delegates will be allocated:

  • Total delegates available- 40
  • At large delegates- 25
  • How at large delegates are allocated- proportionally based on statewide vote
  • Threshold- YES, candidate must reach 10% of the vote on a statewide basis
  • Congressional district delegates- 12
  • How CD delegates are allocated- proportionately based on the vote within that Congressional district
  • CD Threshold- YES, candidate must reach 10% of the vote in that district
  • RNC delegates- 3 (for sake of simplicity, awarded to statewide winner)
  • What the polls tell us: All candidates except Kasich should get delegates from this state
  • Breakdown of at large delegates (plus RNC) based on polls: 16 to Trump, 8 to Cruz, 4 to Rubio
  • Reliability of polls: minimal due to lack of polling

Kentucky- Kentucky will hold closed caucuses today.  This is the first year they will hold caucuses rather than a primary.

  • Total delegates available: 45
  • At large delegates- 24
  • How at large delegates are allocated- proportionately based on statewide vote total
  • Threshold- YES, but minimal at 5% of the overall vote
  • Congressional district delegates- proportionately based on the statewide, NOT Congressional district level votes (hence, they are for all intents and purposes allocated based on the statewide results and are therefore lumped in there)
  • CD threshold- YES, again minimal at 5%
  • What the polls tell us: All candidates, including Kasich should pick up at least one delegate
  • Breakdown of delegates according to polls: Trump 22, Cruz 8, Rubio 12 and Kasich 3
  • Reliability of polls- even less reliable than Kansas

Louisiana:  Will hold closed caucuses today.

  • Total delegates available- 47
  • At large delegates- 26
  • How at large delegates are allocated- proportionately based on statewide vote total
  • Threshold- YES, and fairly large at 20%
  • Congressional district delegates- 18
  • CD threshold- NO
  • How CD delegates are allocated- proportionately based on the vote total within the Congressional district
  • What the polls tell us- Trump and Cruz are well-positioned to take delegates from Louisiana as they are both above the statewide threshold.  A late surge by Rubio can possibly garner him some delegates.  Kasich’s chances are nil and he will come nowhere near getting any delegates.
  • Breakdown of delegates according to polls (at large and RNC only): Trump 18, Cruz 11  NOTE: It is possible for Rubio to pick up delegates on a Congressional district basis if he performs well at that level anywhere
  • Reliability of polls- medium

Maine:  Maine will hold closed caucuses today.

  • Total delegates available- 23
  • At large delegates available- 14 (plus 3 RNC)
  • At large delegate allocation- proportional based on statewide vote totals
  • Threshold- YES, at 10% of the total vote statewide
  • Congressional district delegates- 6
  • CD delegate allocation- Proportionally based on 10% of the statewide vote (thus, all delegates are awarded proportionately based on statewide vote)
  • Threshold- YES, again at 10% (but since there are only two districts…)
  • What the polls tell us:  Every candidate should emerge from Maine with delegates
  • Breakdown of delegates according to polls- Trump 8, Kasich 6, Cruz 5, Rubio 4
  • Reliability of polls- None

Puerto Rico: Finally Puerto Rico will hold a primary tomorrow.

  • Total delegates available- 23
  • At large delegates available- all 23
  • How delegates allocated- Proportionately based on overall vote total
  • Threshold- YES, must receive 20% of the vote
  • What the polls tell us: very little, but expect Cruz and Rubio to split the vote here
  • Breakdown of delegates according to polls- since there are no polls, one would suspect Rubio to get 12 and Cruz 11 delegates, or something like that.
  • Reliability of polls- there are no polls really available.

Thus, after today and Sunday, one should expect a breakdown of delegates like-

  • Donald Trump garnering 62 delegates  (391 to date, or 31.6% of the way there)
  • Ted Cruz getting 43 delegates (274 to date, or 22.1% of the way there)
  • Marco Rubio picking up 32 delegates* (142 to date, or 11.5% of the way there)
  • John Kasich getting 9 delegates (34 to date, or 2.7% of the way there)

* Rubio could potentially pick up additional delegates in Louisiana with a good showing in any of their 6 Congressional districts since there is no threshold on the allocation of those delegates (3 per district) and it is based on the District, not statewide vote totals.

NOTE: The total may not equal the 178 available today since Congressional district delegates in Louisiana and Kansas are not factored into the equation.

We shall see how this all shakes out.  Happy results watching….