Diary

The Battle For the House 2016: November News- Part 2 (of 2)

This is part 2 of the November US House news happenings for 2016:

MO-1: In what has to be one of the oddest selling points for any candidate, Maria Chappelle-Nadal (D) is encouraging voters to vote for her over rival Lacy Clay because Congress lacks any members with an Afro hairstyle, which Nadal sports.

MT-AL: The Democrats believe they have their candidate in term-limited state director of public education instruction, Denise Juneau.  They are obviously hoping a lot goes right here and that Clinton at the top of the ticket will make this a close race.

NV-3: Democrats have been frustrated in efforts to recruit a candidate and only little-known lawyer Jesse Sbaih has stepped forward.  He raised a pitiful $98,000 in the last quarter and loaned his campaign another $200,000, but no one is sure how much he can afford to loan himself.  The DCCC may just have to step in here because this seat is ripe for the pickings for the Democrats.

NH-1: State representative Pam Tucker has entered the GOP primary and joins Dan Innis in trying to unseat fellow Republican [mc_name name=’Rep. Frank Guinta (R-NH)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’G000570′ ].  It is no secret that Guinta enters the race somewhat tainted and that local GOP leaders are not exactly flocking to his defense.  And the Democrats are happy since they believe that Tucker and Innis will split the anti-Guinta vote and allow the incumbent to run in the general election where Democrat Carol Shea-Porter lies in wait…again.  Short story?  The Democrats want to oppose Guinta.

NJ-7: Republican [mc_name name=’Rep. Leonard Lance (R-NJ)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’L000567′ ] will have a familiar primary opponent in David Larsen who will mount his fourth consecutive challenge in this district in the GOP primary.  In 2016, Lance survived a relatively close race against Larsen that took some observers by surprise.

PA-2: Ethically challenged (and indicted) Democrat [mc_name name=’Rep. Chaka Fattah (D-PA)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’F000043′ ] picked up a fourth opponent in the primary. Unlike the other three, this one is black and considering that 58% of the district is black…. Well, you do the math.  As for Fattah, his equally ethically challenged son was recently convicted of 18 counts under an indictment stemming from the investigation of Fattah.  Fattah had a strange statement afterward that this was instigated by the same prosecutor who went after him.  Um…that prosecutor just convicted his son of 18 counts of racketeering, so Fattah should be a little worried right now, not fluffing his feathers.

PA-9: Republican [mc_name name=’Rep. Bill Shuster (R-PA)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’S001154′ ] has come under fire from Pennsylvania and national conservatives for allegedly funneling transportation funds to his district (a Republican pork spending?  There is a surprise…).  He also, as chairman of the House Transportation Committee, allegedly fast tracked another bill which his girlfriend, a lobbyist, had an interest in.  However, that has not stopped the donations from flowing in and if there is to be a challenge from the right, there is some catching up to do.  Shuster is leaving nothing to chance.

PA-16: Republican [mc_name name=’Rep. Joe Pitts (R-PA)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’P000373′ ] will be 77 next year thus placing him on the retirement watch list.  And no sooner was he placed on the list, he announced his retirement.  Redistricting in 2011 made this district slightly bluer to shore up some adjacent districts.  There are a few GOP state level people who may run here.  Stay tuned…

SC-1: State representative Jenny Horne will definitely challenge [mc_name name=’Rep. Mark Sanford (R-SC)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’S000051′ ] in the Republican primary in 2016.  Horne received national attention with her speech about taking down the Confederate flag.  She even attended a Mississippi anti-Confederate flag rally.  Sanford, of course, became famous for getting lost on the Appalachian Trail.  Look for an emotional, potentially barb-filled primary.  South Carolina politics can get ugly and this looks like one brewing.

TN-9: Democrat [mc_name name=’Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’C001068′ ] represents this Memphis-based district.  He is white while the district has a black majority.  This leads some to believe he would be open to a challenge from a black Democrat. And sure enough, Ricky Williams entered the race on the Democratic side.  This will be the third try for Williams who believes he can capitalize this year given the anti-incumbent sentiments in the electorate.

TX-15: The filing deadline for this now open seat since Democrat Ruben Hinojosa is retiring after 9 terms is December 14th.  There is no shortage of Democrats lining up, most of them from Hidalgo County government.  This unexpectedly puts this district into play for the GOP who thus far is fielding only Ruben Villereal.  That could change now that it is an open seat.

UT-4: Doug Owens may be a surprise opponent for the Democrats against Republican incumbent [mc_name name=’Rep. Mia Love (R-UT)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’L000584′ ].  And Love is making it harder to retain this important seat. For the second time this year, her Congressional office has had to reimburse the Treasury for improperly billed travel expenses.  Expect Owens to make this a campaign issue.

VA-4: Court-ordered redistricting may make this seat a little bluer, but GOP incumbent [mc_name name=’Rep. Randy Forbes (R-VA)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’F000445′ ] does not seem worried if fundraising totals are any indication.  Depending on what transpires here, this seat could be placed in jeopardy.

WY-At Large: The unexpected retirement of [mc_name name=’Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’L000571′ ] should not send shakes through the GOP ranks; there is no chance they will lose this seat in the House.  The third ranking Republican in the state house- Tim Stubson- announced his candidacy almost immediately.  Another being mentioned is Lynn Cheney who did not exactly run a stellar Senate campaign in the past.

 

REPUBLICAN SEATS
Probably safe Keep Close Eye On Battleground
F. Hill- AR02 M. Coffman- CO6 M. McSally- AZ02
J. Denham- CA10 (R.DeSantis-FL6) open S. Knight- CA25
R. Davis- IL13 B. Dold- IL10 (D. Jolly- FL13) Open
F. Upton- MI08 (D. Benischek-MI01)open C. Curbelo- FL26
F. LoBiondo- NJ02 T. Wahlberg- MI07 M. Bost- IL12
R. Costello- PA06 M. Bishop-MI08 R. Blum- IA01
(J. Heck-NV3) open D. Young- IA03
S. Garrett- NJ-5 B. Poliquin- ME02
E. Stefanik- NY21 D. Trott- MI11
D. Reichert- WA8 (J. Kline-MN2) Open
F. Guinta- NH1
L. Zeldin- NY1
(C. Gibson- NY19) Open
J. Katko- NY24
(M. Fitzpatrick- PA8) Open
W. Hurd- TX23
V. Comstock- VA10
DEMOCRATIC SEATS
Probably Safe Keep Close Eye On Battleground
J. Garamendi- CA03 A. Bera- CA7 (A. Kirkpatrick-AZ-2) Open
M. Takano- CA41 (L. Capps-CA24) Open K. Sinema- AZ09
E. Esty- CT5 P. Aguilar- CA31 J. Costa- CA16
(M.Grayson-FL09) Open S. Peters- CA52 G. Graham- FL02
D. Loebsack-IA2 (T. Duckworth-IL8) open (S. Murphy-FL18) Open
L. Slaughter- NY25 B. Foster- IL11 B. Ashford- NE2
J. Delaney- MD6 S. Maloney- NY18
T. Walz- MN01
R. Nolan-MN08
(R. Hinojosa-TX15) open