Diary

The Vegas Odds on the GOP Nomination- After 3 and Before 4 Debates

Three debates down and two scheduled for this month, the following chart shows the average Vegas/UK odds on the GOP nomination starting in April until today.  An update will be posted in early December before that month’s debate and after those in November:

Candidate Apr 20 June 17 Aug 9 Aug 26 Sep 10 Sep 23 Oct 27 Nov 8
Bush, Jeb 5 to 2 2 to 1 2 to 1 5 to 2 2 to 1 2 to 1 3 to 1 5 to 1
Carson, Ben 45 to 1 24 to 1 25 to 1 16 to 1 11 to 1 11 to 1 8 to 1 8 to 1
Christie, Chris 10 to 1 14 to 1 19 to 1 22 to 1 24 to 1 23 to 1 28 to 1 22 to 1
Cruz, Ted 40 to 1 24 to 1 25 to 1 22 to 1 24 to 1 25 to 1 14 to 1 11 to 1
Fiorina, Carly 75 to 1 37 to 1 33 to 1 31 to 1 14 to 1 11 to 1 15 to 1 18 to 1
Graham, Lindsey 100 to 1 41 to 1 99 to 1 51 to 1 57 to 1 65 to 1 82 to 1 80 to 1
Huckabee, Mike 25 to 1 31 to 1 19 to 1 21 to 1 27 to 1 25 to 1 39 to 1 42 to 1
Jindal, Bobby 33 to 1 26 to 1 54 to 1 50 to 1 54 to 1 62 to 1 88 to 1 86 to 1
Kasich, John 40 to 1 30 to 1 14 to 1 19 to 1 12 to 1 12 to 1 17 to 1 18 to 1
Pataki, George 100 to 1 60 to 1 100 to 1 65 to 1 77 to 1 77 to 1 92 to 1 100 to 1
Paul, Rand 8 to 1 7 to 1 19 to 1 13 to 1 27 to 1 28 to 1 52 to 1 100 to 1
Rubio, Marco 12 to 1 3 to 1 8 to 1 6 to 1 5 to 1 5 to 1 2 to 1 1.5 to 1
Santorum, Rick 100 to 1 65 to 1 85 to 1 52 to 1 63 to 1 78 to 1 92 to 1 92 to 1
Trump, Donald 100 to 1 55 to 1 10 to 1 6 to 1 4 to 1 4 to 1 4 to 1 4 to 1

Let us look at them in turn, in alphabetical order.  Please be reminded that these are betting odds, not polls, endorsements, or fundraising parameters:

Jeb Bush: Entered the third debate playing second fiddle to [mc_name name=’Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’R000595′ ] and leaves that debate even worse.  The campaign should be in panic mode right now and he is finding that although odds makers still see him as a viable candidate, the Republican primary voters don’t.

Ben Carson:  Showing a slow, steady rise which the polls also indicate, Carson is defying expectations.  The next debate can be critical for his chances.

Chris Christie: The debates have not hurt Christie and they should have helped him.  The fact they haven’t among odds makers and in the polls indicates that should he not perform well in Iowa or New Hampshire, he will be out.  Still, he could play a valuable role for the GOP going forward.  Oddly, he will not be in the next prime time debate, but that could help him with more time in the undercard.  It worked for Fiorina in the first debate.

[mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ]: A shrewd politician with a brain, people were taking note before the debate and definitely after the debate.  The attack on the CNBC moderators was a stroke of genius and a thing of beauty.  He took them down with the dexterity of a surgeon, or a deft prosecutor.  Watch out for Cruz going forward as he is hitting his stride going into Iowa.

Carly Fiorina: She was losing momentum going into the third debate and nothing she did reversed that trend.  Two sparkling performances followed by a so-so one is something she cannot afford.

[mc_name name=’Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’G000359′ ]: No one really takes him seriously as a candidate to start with so anything he does is inconsequential.

Mike Huckabee: Probably 8 years behind, Huckabee continues to drift out of the picture and will find himself in the same boat with Jindal, et. al.  Fox News should be calling right about now.

Bobby Jindal: Perhaps his chances would be a little better in a less-crowded field.  He’s bright and articulate and shows passion.  Too bad no one takes him serious.

John Kasich: He did nothing to help his chances and it is evident in the polls and the odds.  This writer did not like the guy before the debate and I like him even less now.  He is clearly a fall-back (way back) choice.

George Pataki:  For the Xth time, why is he still in this thing?

[mc_name name=’Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’P000603′ ]: He looks and acts like a defeated candidate.  It may be time to rethink this candidacy and focus on his Senate seat.  Seems to run in the family…  When Vegas thinks Santorum and Graham have a better shot, it is time to go.

[mc_name name=’Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’R000595′ ]: He only solidified his standing with his debate performance.  The consensus winner among the pundit class, beware- he has nowhere to go now but down.  No one has been this close to even money thus far.

Rick Santorum: Nice guy, not his year.  He needs to exit the race…NOW!  But at least he’s doing better than Paul.

Donald Trump:  He has been at 4-1 now for three periods and his poll numbers, although the leader and by a yuuuuuge margin, indicates he has hit a wall.  Many (me included) predicted this as we got closer to people casting actual votes, not answering the pollsters on the other end of the line.  He did not help himself nor hurt himself in the third debate which, I suppose, is all you have to do if you are the front runner (in the polls).