Diary

Vegas Odds on GOP Nomination- UPDATED Version

Using a combination of betting sites and deriving an average, the “odds” on the GOP nomination are in need of some updating since the last time I published these.  Instead of relying on a single site (like last time), I derived an average from several betting sites both domestic and foreign.  Please remember that these are NOT MY ODDS, but averages from betting sites.  The field is also larger since last time and includes declared and anticipated candidates.  So without further ado:

At #15 and 60:1 is former New York Governor George Pataki.  If the Republican Party is going to go with Pataki, then they should endorse a Donald Trump entry into the race.  This is one of those WTF candidacies and the most likely to end very early.

#14.  At 41:1 is [mc_name name=’Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’G000359′ ].  See the above.

#13.  Carly Fiorina at 37-1 which is a shame since she is the only female in the race not named Clinton.  Unlike Clinton, she actually does not shy away from questions of any kind.  And she has been taking the fight to Hillary quite forcefully.

#12. Rick Santorum at 35-1 (up from 100:1).  I do not doubt this guy’s sincerity, but his ability to win is another thing.  Besides, he is more authentically “populist” than Hillary.

#11. Mike Huckabee at 32-1 (down from 25:1).  Like Santorum, a sincere enough guy, but really?

#10. John Kasich at 30-1.  He’s been getting some press lately, but there are more questions than answers at this point in time.  We need to see where this leads and what develops.

#9. Bobby Jindal at 26-1 (up from 33:1).  Jindal is a little under the radar right now, but should get more serious consideration if or when he officially enters the fray.

#8. Rick Perry at 24-1 (up from 50-1).  Some people are starting to take him a little more seriously these days.  Several Leftist sites said to ignore Perry at your own peril.  Maybe that is why he is improving among the odds makers.

#7. Ben Carson at 24:1.  Of course, Rick Perry being tied with political neophyte Ben Carson illustrates how far Perry has to go to catch up to the front of the pack.

#6. [mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ] at 21:1 (up from 40:1).  He was the first one officially in the race, but seems to have lost some momentum- the very momentum that spurred him up the rankings.  Has he peaked?

#5. Chris Christie 14-1 (down from 10-1):  I can’t believe this guy is still above Cruz.  But apparently the odds makers still see something here even if voters don’t.  But, unlike Cruz he is trending in the wrong direction.

#4. [mc_name name=’Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’P000603′ ] at 7-1 (up from 8-1).  I would not really count him out just yet whether you like him or not.  Personally, there is a lot to make you question this choice, but he’s hanging in there so far.

#3. Scott Walker at 4-1 (down from 11-2).  Its a slight drop most likely attributable to him concentrating on the Wisconsin legislative schedule.  Executives have to execute and Governors have to govern.  And like #2 below, if they are attacking you this early, they must fear you.  He’s still garnering headlines without real campaigning.

#2. At 3-1 (up from 12-1) [mc_name name=’Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’R000595′ ].  This is the other one under Democratic attack and it is becoming most amusing as they flail about recounting “luxury yachts,” refrigerators bought with a loan on a 401(k) and 18 year old driving infractions.

#1. At 2-1 (last time 11-2) is Jeb Bush.  Well, on the plus side he has the name recognition.  But, on the minus side he has the name recognition.  I just don’t get it.  Nominating Bush would be throwing away a great strategy and argument against Clinton.  No wonder the press is pushing this guy.  The Clinton team is salivating at this prospect as it would do nothing to thwart the coronation of Hillary.  This would be the ultimate “GOP shooting oneself in the foot” scenario that might send this writer packing for Peru.