Diary

Midterm Elections: Final Predictions

I have completed an analysis of all midterm races in every state this cycle.  This started 30 days ago and ended yesterday, November 2nd, with Iowa.  Since then, some races have changed a little.  To recap, I predicted that the Republican Party would pick up a net total of one Governor’s office.  In federal elections, they would pick up a net total of eight Senate seats and 6 seats in the House of Representatives.  Based upon subsequent polling and the campaigns of some candidates since that series began, there are some changes.  The following is a list of those changes:

1. Alaska-  In the gubernatorial race, I originally called it for the Walker-Mallot ticket over GOP incumbent Sean Parnell by 6 points.  That now changes to 8 points.  In the Senate race, there is no change and I stand by the Sullivan victory prediction despite Begich’s supposedly great ground game.

2. Arizona- I originally predicted that the GOP and Wendy Rogers would win the 9th District over Krysten Sinema, but am now changing that to a Sinema victory.  Conversely, I am now predicting a [mc_name name=’Rep. Ron Barber (D-AZ)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’B001279′ ] win for the Democrats in the 2nd and for Andy Tobin to defeat [mc_name name=’Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’K000368′ ], the Democratic incumbent in the First District.  Either way, the original prediction called for a GOP pick up of one in Arizona.  That remains the same; only the districts have changed.

3. Arkansas- In the gubernatorial race, I predicted Asa Hutchinson by 4-5 points.  That now changes to Hutchinson by 8 points with [mc_name name=’Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’C001095′ ] still defeating [mc_name name=’Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’P000590′ ] in the Senatorial contest.  There are no changes in the congressional race predictions with the GOP losing the Second District.

4. California- Originally called for a Republican victory in the 7th District, but am now changing this to a Democratic retention and a victory for [mc_name name=’Rep. Ami Bera (D-CA)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’B001287′ ].

5. Colorado- Still calling for a Beauprez victory in the Governor’s race and for [mc_name name=’Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’G000562′ ] now to defeat [mc_name name=’Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’U000038′ ] by 3 points instead of a very close race.

6. Georgia- In the gubernatorial race, I am now predicting a Nathan Deal victory outright with no runoff in January.  However, in the Senatorial race, David Perdue will most likely have to face a runoff, although one poll shows him up 4 points.  If true, that should give him enough for a victory outright with the Libertarian candidate fading.

7. Hawaii- Originally called the gubernatorial race as a possible sleeper for the GOP, but am now calling for an easy Democratic victory here.  In the First District race, I called for a Democratic victory by 4 points, but would now call this race a pure toss-up.

8. Illinois- In the 12th District, I would change this from a close GOP pick-up to one by about 4 points.  Meanwhile, GOP chances in the 17th have faded.  I am still calling for a Quinn victory in the gubernatorial race.

9. Iowa- I would upgrade GOP chances from 15 point margin to at least 20 in the gubernatorial race while still predicting an Ernst victory.  In the 3rd District race, I would slightly improve the GOP’s chances, but still calling for a Democratic pick-up here.

10. Kansas- Branstad’s chances have improved in the gubernatorial race and I now put him at a 2 point loss, not 5 as originally called.  Nothing has changed on the Senatorial side.

11. Louisiana- In the Senatorial race, I am now calling for a Cassidy victory over Landrieu of about 6, not three, points.  Whether this is enough to avoid a runoff on December 6th remains to be seen.

12. Maine- Instead of Paul LePage winning a razor thin victory in the gubernatorial race, I am now predicting a fairly easy 3 point victory over Michaud with Cutler draining votes from the latter.  Conversely, I a now predicting an Emily Cain Democratic victory and retention in the open 2nd District.

13. Massachusetts- I would now upgrade Charlie Baker’s gubernatorial chances over Martha Coakley, perhaps the worst Massachusetts politician of all time.  And while I would downgrade the Democrat’s chances with Seth Moulton in the 6th District slightly, I would upgrade John Chapman’s chances for the GOP in the 9th District.

14. Michigan- In the Senatorial race, originally called it for Peters by 8-9 points.  His chances are now upgraded to an at-least 10 point victory over Republican Terri Lynn Land.  However, I now predict a David Trott victory for the GOP in the 11th District, thus keeping the district in Republican hands.

15. Minnesota- Still predicting a Mark Dayton win in the gubernatorial contest, but by less than 10 points.  Conversely, I am changing [mc_name name=’Sen. Al Franken (D-MN)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’F000457′ ] from a 7-10 point victory to a greater than 10 point victory.  In the 8th District, still predicting a Stewart Mills victory, but downgrading its chances.

16. New Hampshire-  Maggie Hassan will be reelected Governor, but by the skin of her teeth.  Likewise for [mc_name name=’Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’S001181′ ] in a very close race.  How this affects the 1st District race remains to be seen.  Although I still expect a Republican victory here, asking for more than 1-2 seats out of New England for the GOP is a little much.  With the change in Maine, this one is more likely.

17. New Jersey-  Originally called for a Belgard Democratic pick up in the 3rd District.  I am now changing this to a Republican retention and a Tom McArthur win.  His standings in the polls have improved and as the DCCC has pulled advertisement dollars and placed them in the 1st- a race they had no chance in losing- is inexplicable.  The reason is the donors who specified they wanted their dollars spent in the First for Donald Norcross, a fellow union crony.

18. New York- There are three changes in New York.  I originally predicted a GOP victory in the 4th District, but am now switching this to a Democratic retention.  However, in the 11th Republican [mc_name name=’Rep. Mike Grimm (R-NY)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’G000569′ ], despite the legal cloud hanging over him, should win his reelection effort for the GOP as Paul Recchia, his Democratic opponent, has failed to capitalize.  And in the 18th, despite early leads in the polls and some optimism, I am now calling for a Democratic victory in the 18th District.  [mc_name name=’Rep. Sean Maloney (D-NY)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’M001185′ ] should retain his seat over Nan Hayworth as Andrew Coumo’s likely landslide in the gubernatorial race will have an effect down ballot.

19. Pennsylvania- In the gubernatorial race, originally called a Democratic victory of 8-10 points.  I am now calling for a greater than 10 point victory for Tom Wolf over Tom Corbett, the Republican incumbent Governor.

20. South Dakota- The presence of Larry Pressler on the ballot will drain some votes from Mike Rounds, but he will still win by 8-10 points, not the original 15 points predicted.

21. Virginia- Ed Gillespie has made some gains here, but not enough to defeat John Warner.  I originally called this race for Warner by 11-13 points and now change that margin of victory to 8-10 points.

After all is said and done, the Republican Party will still pick up 8 seats in the Senate.  Should they lose Kansas and Georgia, they would still pick up 6 seats and control of the Senate.  In the House, they should pick up a net 5 seats, not 6 as originally predicted.  And at the state level, they should pick up a net total of one Governor’s offices.