The Presidency and Senate 2012: Early Prediction

Happy Easter to all RedState readers.

On this day, while there is a lull in politics- unless you are watching the Sunday morning talk shows- it would be good to look at where the race for the Presidency and the Senate stands at this point in time. Most of this is based upon the most recent polling data from a variety of sources specific to each state.

Basically, I decided to divide the country into five broad geographical regions and look at the race for President in each state in those areas and also any Senate races in 2012 in those states.

WEST: There are 104 electoral votes up for grabs in these states. It is estimated that Obama will garner 78 of those electoral votes with Romney, the presumptive GOP nominee, winning Alaska, Arizona, Utah and Nevada. Republicans stand to pick up no Senate seats here either as incumbents Diane Feinstein (CA) and Maria Cantwell (WA) should win their reelection bids. In the open Democratic seat in Hawaii, expect the Democratic nominee, probably Mazie Hirono to defeat Republican Linda Lingle. I am also predicting at this time that incumbent Republicans Orrin Hatch (UT) and Dean Heller (NV) will win reelection. For the open Arizona seat of John Kyl, look for Flake to defeat Carmona keeping the seat Republican. Hence, the Republicans pick up no seats out west and defend their three seats.

MOUNTAIN WEST: In this region, Romney will likely pull 63 of the available 68 electoral votes with New Mexico being the only loss. In fact, I am calling, at this point, Colorado to move into the Romney column. In the Senate races, two are open Democratic held seats- New Mexico and North Dakota. Assuming Heinrich defeats Balderas for the nod in New Mexico to run against Republican Heather Wilson, I expect this to remain in the Democratic column. Up in North Dakota, Rick Berg will win for the GOP thus flipping this state. Likewise, Rehberg will take down Tester in Montana. In the open Texas seat held by Republicans, the Republican nominee will win keeping the seat in GOP hands while the GOP retains the seat in Wyoming. Hence, Republicans pick up two Senate seats in this region.

MIDWEST: Mitt Romney will garner 45 of the available 119 electoral votes in this area. Although flipping Iowa, he will lose the upper midwest states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio. In the Senate races, Democrats should keep their seats in Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio while Republicans will retain their seat in Indiana assuming Lugar is the candidate. If it is Mourdock, then all bets are off. Clair McCaskill will lose to the eventual GOP nominee in Missouri (she trails all three potential candidates). Likewise, in open seats currently held by Democrats, whoever runs for the GOP in Nebraska will defeat Bob Kerry and assuming Tommy Thompson runs against Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, expect this state to also flip to the Republicans. The result is that the Republicans pick up three Senate seats in this region.

SOUTH: In this area, expect Mitt Romney to take 102 of the possible 130 electoral votes. The two seats held by Republicans- Tennessee and Mississippi- will remain in Republican hands. In the Florida race, I believe, based on a rather decent database of polls, that Bill Nelson will keep his seat in a squeaker against Connie Mack IV. In Virginia, in what should be a barn burner of a race for an open Democratic seat, I believe Tim Kaine will win that one, also keeping the seat in Democratic hands. The result is no Senate pick-ups for the GOP in the South.

NORTHEAST: Mitt Romney will take 29 of the available 117 electoral votes here- New Hampshire, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Of the eight incumbent Democratic Senators, they will likely all be reelected. For the open Connecticut seat, I am calling this one for the Democrats at this point although it all depends on who runs against who. Assuming a Shays-Murphy match-up, then Murphy will win in a close race. Among the two Republican seat races, again based on a decent database of polling data, Scott Brown will prevail in Massachusetts. In the open seat in Maine, it is unclear who the nominees for either party will be at this point. Because of that, I am just going to mark it in the GOP column at this point only because the strongest Democratic names have opted out of the race (Pingree and Michaud). The result is that there will be no pick ups or losses in this region.

In the final analysis, Obama wins reelection with 273 electoral votes to Romney’s 265. Also, Republicans will pick up five seats in the Senate thus flipping the upper chamber to Republican control. Not analyzed, but predicted, is the GOP retention of control of the House, although by a smaller majority as they should lose about ten seats.

Of course, a lot can change between now and November. However, a silver lining could be found even if Obama wins reelection. He would not only have to contend with a Republican-controlled Congress, but his electoral margin of victory would be threadbare clearly indicating no mandate for his policies. With perhaps a stronger GOP Presidential candidate (no…not Rick Santorum), this could have been a sweep for the Republicans and exclamation mark on the repudiation of Obama’s policies.