As a result of the 2008 election Florida is represented in congress by 15 Republican and 10 Democrat representatives, with 2 Republican and 1 Democrat seat changing parties. Bill Nelson-D and Mel Martinez-R are our Senators, neither of which were up for reelection in 2008. Our governor is Charlie Crist-R who was also not up for reelection. The highest profile non-politician is Jeb Bush-R who is the former governor and not holding (or running for) any office currently. Jeb Bush is immensely popular in Florida.The statewide party affiliation is:
Republican: 2006- 3.9M 2008- 3.9M Delta- (0.8)%
Democrat: 2006- 4.2M 2008- 4.3M Delta- 2.6%
Independent: 2006- 2.3M 2008- 2.3M Delta- (0.4)%
Total: 2006- 10.4M 2008- 10.5M Delta- 0.7%
Note that while Florida has slightly more Democrats than Republicans, they are concentrated in 7 districts (02, 03, 11, 17, 19, 20, and 23) that all have 50% or higher Democrat registration. Only two districts are similarly strong for the Republicans (01 and 14) with 49% Republican registration. Most other districts have slight Republican majorities, usually about 42%R to 37%D. This means that Florida can be put in play for Democrats in a state-wide or presidential election (as shown in 2008), but district by district, Republicans will tend to hold the majority of congressional and legislature representation.
Florida 15
Incumbent Status
Incumbent: Bill Posey, R
First Elected: 2008 (1st term)
Last Elected: (%)
Incumbent Status: Running for re-election
Race Forecast: Republican Favored
2008 Results
Bill Posey (R) – 191,341 – 53.1%
Stephen Blythe (D) – 151,031 – 41.9%
Frank Zilaitis (X) – 14,228 – 4%
Trevor Lowing (X) – 3,472 – 1%
2008 Funding
Posey: Funding Received – $836,356.00, Spent – $620,912.00, Remaining Cash – $215,441.00
Blythe: Funding Received – $100,458.00, Spent – $95,331.00, Remaining Cash – $5,128.00
District Statistics (2000 Census)
2006 Voter Registration: 36D/43R/21I
2006 Results: 56%/44% (Dave Weldon-R wins)
Population: 639,295
Under 18: 22%, Over 65: 20%
Married: 58.0%
Non-Hispanic White: 78%, Black: 7%, Hispanic: 11%, Asian: 2%
Foreign Born: 9.1%, Language other than English: 15.5%
Median Household Income: 39,397, Owner Occupied Housing: 73%, Income above $200k: 1.9%
White Collar: 58.4%, Blue Collar: 22.2%, Services: 19.4%
Bachelor’s Degree: 22%, Graduate Education: 7.8%
Civilian Veterans: 96,640
Party Contact Info
In Florida, the Republicans are organized by county, not district. The Florida Republican Party maintains ties with each Country organization. FL-15 includes parts of Osceola, Brevard and Indian River counties.
Osceola County web site
Brevard County web site
Indian River County web site
Florida GOP web site
State Conservative Policy and Advocacy Organizations
James Madison Institute – J. Robert McClure III, President
Foundation for Excellent in Education – Patricia W. Levesque, Executive Director (This is Jeb Bush’s organization)
Analysis
FL-15 was Dave Weldon’s district, prior to his retirement in 2008. State Senator Bill Posey ran to replace him, and won easily. The Democrats originally planned to compete for this district, but when Col. Paul Rantacore dropped out of the race, then reentered, much confusion resulted. In the end, Rantacore lost to Dr. Steve Blythe in the primary and the Democrat external resources abandoned the district. Posey was able to easily win the district, despite spending well under the typical minimum of $1M needed to win as a first term representative. This race was notable by the almost complete lack of TV advertising by Bill Posey, so most of the district doesn’t have a clue what he looks like. Note that Bill Posey spent only about 75% of his funds to win the race, while his competitor was seriously underfunded. Baring major misstep or scandal by Bill Posey, this district will remain in GOP hands indefinitely.
