Diary

Four signs that McCain will win Florida

Some information from Florida, some of which you already know.

1) By now everyone has heard about early voting here. Dems lead the GOP in early voting 53/30 (not sure on that GOP number) with 1.4 million votes cast. Meanwhile, GOP leads Dems in absentee ballots, 50/30 with 1.2 million received. However, LA Times/Bloomberg polling on already cast votes in Florida, gives McCain a 3 point lead.

The thing to keep in mind here is that polling in Florida is almost impossible to do with voters that vote absentee. These are Snowbirds that haven’t headed south for the winter yet, and military people overseas. The vast majority of the poll respondents are going to have to come from the early voting pool. This would indicate a large proportion of that early votes are PUMAs.

I wouldn’t be surprised though if most of the PUMAs have already voted though. They want to get it out of the way to keep from risking changing their minds.

2) I drove from the east coast to the west coast yesterday along I-4. I-4 is the swing district of the state. Once I got to the west coast, I drove from Manatee county south of Tampa to Pasco county north of Tampa (Purple district, through a Blue district to a Red district). Throughout the entire drive I kept count of the number of Obama bumperstickers I saw. The grand total, after 8 hours on the road was 4. Since Obama supporters don’t have significant reasons to not put on a bumbersticker (they aren’t getting their cars keyed), the only reason can be lack of enthusiasm.

3) I drove along some back roads in Manatee county. On one stretch, I passed several small, rundown houses. These people should be naturals to be caught up by the Obama redistribution promise, but they had McCain signs in their yards. The first Obama sign I saw was on a place that would be a comparative mansion in this area.

4) Finally, Obama did the live portion of his Infomercial from Florida (maybe Sarasota, nice of him to finally visit). The news reports were showing an aerial shot of the crowd. The crowd was very small, around 200. I don’t know how it looked on TV, but he did not have many adoring fans there to see him.