You know the old saying, look where the candidates are spending their time.
So without trying to be depressing, the schedule for this week is a little gloomy. After spending time in New Mexico over the weekend, there are 4 states where McCain and Palin will be spending time this week, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. This means that at this point, the campaign isn’t seeing a point in going elsewhere.
My best guess is that the McCain campaign thinks the following will occur:
They will win MO, NV, IN, and FL.
They will lose NM, IA, CO, NH, and WI.
Having to spend time in VA and NC is not a good sign, especially NC.
Now take all of this with a grain of salt. This election is within a couple points, and their internal polls are likely affected by some of the same problems that are plaguing the public pollsters. Also, we still see large numbers of undecideds in the public polls. If enough information about Obama gets to them, they may break toward McCain.
But increasingly it is looking like McCain thinks they need to defend 3 Red states and win PA to pull this off, although if they win PA, they can lose either VA or NC.