Diary

Ok, I'm not ready to call shennanigans on Rasmussen yet

Today is the first day of his polling track that includes all polling after the VP debate. 70 million people watched that debate, and the results are that Obama’s lead increased to 8 points? How does that make any sense in a sane universe? Giving the MSM spin, at best it can be called “Biden held his own”, which should have resulted in the tracking poll holding steady.

To head off the inevitable trolls, I can think of three plausible explanations:

1) Most of the swing voters that watched were leaning Obama, and needed Biden to just be “good enough” to confirm their decision.

2) The VP debate was meaningless, and the bailout passage was the determining factor in the shift.

3) Rasmussen has something really off in his methodology this year.

If #1 is true, McCain is toast. Fold up the tent and go home. We are heading to European Union socialism.

If #2 is true, then McCain has a good chance, if he hammers home a strong message on the economy to swing those “angry voters” back into his camp.

If #3 is true, then McCain is heading to a 300+ EV victory.