Diary

And there goes Rasmussen

Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll is finally showing the McCain advantage that the other polls have been showing. As of today, McCain holds a 3 point advantage both with and without leaners included (49 to 46 with leaners).

This gives me a lot more confidence in the state of the election, since Rasmussen was not matching the other polls before today.

This is historically a small shift to the right-center after the conventions (5% shift from the pre convention state), but there have been 1 or 2 others over the last 10 election cycles that were this small. It also reflects an immediate post convention bounce, and we could see this advantage grow, especially if Obama continues his self destructive Palin attacks.

If we go into the election, and McCain actually wins by 3%, then we are looking at about a 280 to 285 EV win for McCain. He will win Ohio, Virginia, Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. If Obama does poorly in the debates (which is a possibility given not having a teleprompter) then look for a wider advantage into the 5% to 8% range, which could end up flipping Pennsylvania and Michigan, giving a 300+ EV win.