Diary

Rassmussen confirms Obama is in trouble

Today’s daily Rassmussen tracking poll shows that Obama has the slightest of edges, well inside the margin of error, and has dropped a point or two from Monday. Obama leads 45% to 43%, or 48% to 46% when including leaners. This confirms the trend noted by Gallup, where the “Berlin Bounce” has disappeared in less than a week.

But there is a really interesting statistic in the poll:

New data released today shows that 30% of conservative Democrats plan to vote for John McCain. Nineteen percent (19%) of White Democrats say the same. Full crosstabs are available for Premium Members. There are nearly twice as many uncommitted voters today as there were four years ago in late July (see other recent demographic highlights).

These are poor trends for Obama, showing a serious inability to shore up support within his party. At this point in an election, the nominee should already have his base sewn up and be working to convince independants to vote for him. Instead, Obama has to spend time solidifying his base before the convention, while distracted by the need to stay ahead in fund raising. McCain has succeeded in knocking Obama off message at exactly the wrong time.

Mr. 25% better get in gear, or he is toast.