Diary

Intrade Predicts No Health Care Bill will Pass Congress

For those attempting to predict that future of Obamacare, and whether it will pass Congress, Intrade is predicting (and has been for some time) that Obamacare will not pass Congress.

Here is their prediction and trend graph over time.

How to read their predictions (courtesy of Intrade):

“A market that is trading at 90, means that there is a 90% chance of the event happening. 90% means the event it is highly likely to occur, but not guaranteed. Intrade’s predictions have been wrong in the past, and will be again in the future. However, the Intrade market mechanism of aggregating opinions to give the an estimate of likelihood of an uncertain future event occurring is the best one we know.”