Diary

NEWSFLASH: Pollsters Not Polling Likely Voters, just Adults

The Obamacare plane is losing altitude, has two engines on fire, and is starting a potentially fatal roll to the left.

Karl Rove, writing in the WSJ:

Polls are turning against President Barack Obama’s health-care plan. The political calendar is, too.

On Monday, the Washington Post/ABC poll reported that 49% of Americans approve of his handling of health care while 44% disapprove. What many people missed is that those who strongly disapprove of the president’s approach on health care now outnumber those who strongly approve by 33% to 25%. That presages further decline. Already, 49% of independents disapprove of the president’s approach, up from 30% in April, a staggering shift in 11 weeks.

Mr. Obama is also slipping on the economy. Those who strongly disapprove now outnumber those who strongly approve of his handling of the economy (35% to 29%), of deficits (38% to 19%), and of unemployment (31% to 26%). On Tuesday, Gallup showed Mr. Obama’s personal approval was 55%, down from more than 60% a few weeks ago and lower than the 56% George W. Bush had at this point in his first term.

What is the most interesting about these polls is that they poll “adults” NOT likely voters.

The only major pollster who is polling LIKELY VOTERS, Rasmussen, has Obamacare spiraling in for the fatal inverted tail spin.

Republicans, according to Rasmussen’s LIKELY VOTERS poll, have taken a four point lead in the generic Congressional ballot.

And Rasmussen’s LIKELY VOTER polling puts voters at 53% opposed to Obamacare.

And yesterday’s daily tracking polls for Obama are brutal:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 29% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-five percent (35%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -6

And cost is the main issue with health reform, not universal coverage, according to LIKELY VOTERS:

Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters nationwide say that cost is the biggest health care problem facing the nation today. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 21% believe the lack of universal health insurance coverage is a bigger problem.

And it’s not just the public who are concerned about the cost of Obamacare, in addition to the Blue Dogs and the 20 anti-tax Democratic freshmen House Representatives, the Congressional Budget Office, the Democratic Governors are warning about the cost to their states, as Rove writes:

Democratic governors from Colorado, Tennessee, New Mexico and Washington joined GOP colleagues at the National Governors Association summer meeting to blast the administration for plans to shift millions of families into Medicaid. That could stick states with $440 billion in new costs over the next decade.

But the most damaging news came from Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Douglas Elmendorf, who said last week that the White House’s health-care proposals would not “reduce the trajectory of federal health spending by a significant amount.” This shattered the central claim Mr. Obama has been making: that his health-care plan controls costs. In a July 17 letter, Mr. Elmendorf added that the House’s health-care bill would result in a “net increase in the federal budget deficit of $239 billion” over 10 years. That’s likely a low-ball estimate because it assumes that Congress will increase taxes by $583 billion over the next decade.

This is why, when asked if they would have a Health Bill done by the August recess, Senators Baucus (D-MT) and Senator Conrad (D-ND) actually burst out laughing. Senator Baucus later told a colleague prayers would also be helpful.