Dan Perrin dared me to front this. Gladly. Dan, btw, is a Republican strategist, in addition to writing wonky books on health care. — Erick.
There are seven serious, historic, demographic and other wise culturally compelling reasons Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin will win the election on November 4, 2008 – a date of defeat that will sear itself into the Democratic Party’s collective consciousness.
The first and foremost reason McCain-Palin will win is the absolute arrogance, elitism, condescending, patronizing and in-your-face voter suppression campaign – don’t vote for McCain, he can not win — being conducted by the national media on Senator Obama’s behalf.
Americans do not like to be told what to do. But the national media has become a feminized, electronic vote-for-Obama nagging machine. There is plenty of precedent for the average American telling those telling them what to do, to go pound sand, especially to those who tell them over, and over, and over again. Just ask the HMOs. Their you-can’t-do-this or you-must-do-only-this business strategy ended with the average American saying NO to joining HMOs.
Essentially, the media have been frolicking in the streets in an orgy of Obama adulation and McCain bashing. Now, they will wonder why anyone would be disgusted by their behavior, or want to knock them back in their place? This is a symptom of their chronic and insular world condition.
The media’s blindness is fueling the anti-media web-networks with oceans of gasoline. This is why the proliferation of lawsuits challenging Obama’s claim of natural born citizenship (the original filed by a life long Democrat who is a former Deputy Attorney General of the State of Pennsylvania) and the beating up of the LA Times about its refusal to release the video of Obama speaking at a pro-Palestinian dinner, are just the tip of the anti-media iceberg the media themselves has created.
In short, the media cannot be fair. The media will not ever, not ever admit they had anything to do with the November 4th backlash. They listen to these criticisms just like an alcoholic listens to concerns, but who insists they can still have a drink. The media have hatred and contempt in their hard hearts for any views that do not meet their pro-Obama criteria. Stand by, national media, for the big smack down.
Here are the six other reasons McCain-Palin will win:
2. The Gallup poll after Labor Day has historically been a predictor of the winner of the Presidential election. The person leading in that poll wins the Presidency. The Republican convention, pushed onto Labor Day by the Summer Olympics muddied the waters on this historic fact, but the Gallup poll a week later showed McCain ahead of Obama, predicting the McCain victory.
There are six states that since 1972 have voted for the winning Presidential candidate. These are predictor states. They pick winners every time. McCain will win every one of the following six states: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee.
Elderly and some other Jewish voters were already uncomfortable about voting for Obama, but the recent comments by Farrakhan that when Obama speaks, the Messiah is speaking, or that Obama’s victory will do great things for the Nation of Islam, or the statement by Jesse Jackson that there will be “fundamental change” in America’s foreign policy, especially with regard to Israel – is causing a hemorrhaging of Jewish support.
Women who feel Senator Clinton was treated unfairly by the Democratic Party, by the media and by Senator Obama — who did not even vet Senator Clinton to be his running mate – will remember. This voting block, you will recall, lay in the weeds in the pre-New Hampshire primary polling. The win by Senator Clinton was a shock, undetected by the polling. And these were Democratic Party voters who were undetected – not the other voters Obama will face November 4th. Obama’s youth vote will not post to the polls, they never do. The young think: the media says Obama will win, so why should I vote? But the 40 and 50 and 60 something women voters who voted for Senator Clinton have three alternative plans to make sure they get to the polls, regardless of a hiccup in their work or child care responsibilities. They will vote, and they will vote against Senator Obama.
Today’s unstable world does not bode well for Senator Obama. The instability in the stock market and related job and mortgage fears do not equate with voting for the ING (Inexperienced New Guy.) In an affirmation of Mark Penn’s observation that the strong leader almost always wins the Presidential election, a mid-west hairdresser with no party affiliation told me the country has very serious problems, and that is why she is voting for the strongest leader.
Finally, the reason that the world and the media incorrectly will tag as the reason for McCain’s victory (despite the foregoing six other reasons) will be the Wilder or Bradley effect. Simply put, Asians, Whites and Hispanics have and will lie to pollsters about their intention to vote for Senator Obama. According to the Associated Press, this will cost Obama six points at the polls. The AP estimate could be low. In the case of Bradley and Wilder, the spread between a “lead” in the polls and actual votes cast was in the low double digits.
So, when McCain-Palin wins – credit or blame the media. Their harping and yelping for Senator Obama created massive Obama over-exposure, anger and resentment that will be expressed in the voting booth on November 4th.